Morning Notes – Monday, June 12, 2023

Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving up since 6:15 AM from 4353.00 after declining from 4364.50 reached at 5:00 AM
• The odds are for an up day with an equal chance of breaking down- watch for a break below 4353.00 for a change of sentiments
• No major economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4297.54, 4291.703, and 4279.60
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4309.92, 4322.62, and 4346.90
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4364.50, the high at 5:00 AM, and 4355.25, the low at 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4350.75, and the index closed at 4298.86 – a spread of about +52.00 points; the futures closed at 4348.75; the fair value is +2.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +11.00, Dow by +39, and NASDAQ by +74.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher –   Shanghai and closed lower; Sydney was closed for trading
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.720, down -9.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.859%, down -11.0 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.606%, down -11.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.886, down from -0.754
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.139, down from +0.159
• VIX
  • At 14.59 @ 6:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 20.81 on May 24; low = 13.50 on June 9
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday, June 8, in mixed volume. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The day’s price action was a little bit like reversal day and major indices closed lower than their open.

For the week, the major US indices closed up in mostly higher volume. Moats exchanges in Asia closed up but most markets in Europe closed down. The dollar index closed down, the energy futures closed mixed, the precious metals closed up, and the industrial metals and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields moved up. All but two S&P sectors – Consumer Staples and Technology – closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The S&P 500 climbed past 4,300 for the first time since August after yesterday’s closing level (4,293.93) marked a 20% advance off the October closing low, which meets the technical definition of entering a new bull market. […] The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 0.4% at its high for the day, but closed with a 0.1% loss after many stocks pulled back. […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), which had been up as much as 1.2%, closed with a 0.4% gain. […] By the close, decliners led advancers by a 5-to-3 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. […] Strength from their respective mega cap components had the information technology (+0.5%), consumer discretionary (+0.4%), and communication services (+0.1%) sectors near the top of the leaderboard. […] The cyclically-oriented materials (-0.8%) and energy (-0.6%) sectors closed at the bottom of the pack. […] The 2-yr note yield rose 10 basis points to 4.62% and the 10-yr note yield rose three basis points to 3.75%. […] Nasdaq Composite: +26.7% YTD S&P 500: +12.0% YTD Russell 2000: +5.9% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +4.6% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD […]