Morning Notes – Monday, September 18, 2023

/ September 18, 2023

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; bouncing a bit after broking below a sidewyas move at 7:15 AM
  • The odds are for a down day – watch for a break above 4507.50 for a change of sentiments
  • No major economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: DSide-Down
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4430.46, 4415.17, and 4401.67
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4456.88, 4470.72, and 4497.98
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4507.50, the high at 3:30 AM and 4487.50, the low at 7:45 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4497.75, and the index closed at 4450.32 – a spread of about +47.25 points; the futures closed at 4498.00; the fair value is -0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50, Dow by -10, and NASDAQ by -32.75

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mostly higher – Germany is lower
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are mostly higher
    • Soft commodities are mixed
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.249, up +13.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 4.337%, up +10.9 basis points
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.991%, up +11.5 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.7412, up from -0.758
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.088, down from +0.110
  • VIX
    • At 14.64 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 18.88 on August 18; low = 12.68 on September 15
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 15 was a red candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow closing a little below the previous week’s red candle but still within the real body of the large green candle of the week ending of September 1
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below the %D;
    • RSI-9 is around 55
  • The week was down -7.17 or -0.2%; the 5-week ATR  is 108.53
  • Third down week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=4469.84, R1=4492.47, R2=4534.62; S1=4427.69, S2=4405.06; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily
  • A relatively large red candle with almost no upper and lower shadow

    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D
    • RSI-9 is around 45; below 8-DMA
  • Below 20-day EMA; at/above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Declining since 2:00 AM on September 15 after breaching a resistance level briefly;
    • RSI-21 is around 25
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Broken below a sideway move since 1:30 PM on Friday after declining earlier during the day
    • RSI-21 has been moving around 30
    • Below EMA20, which is below  EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down since 7:00 PM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 7:15 AM with the price near the lower band
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, September 15, in higher volume. The major indices opened down and then mostly traded lower until mid-afternoon and then moved sideways until the close. All S&P sectors closed down.

For the week, the major US indices closed mixed in higher volume. The markets in Asia closed mostly higher, and the European markets closed up. The dollar index closed down, and most commodities closed up. The US Treasury yields closed higher.

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