Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM – declined more than 20 points from 8:00 AM, moving between a horizontal channel between 4304.00 and 4277.25- The odds are for a sidewyas to down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4304.00 or a break below 4277.25 for clarity
- The major economic data reports due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims ( 207k vs. 211K est.; prev. 205K) at 8:30 AM
- Trade Balance ( -58.3B vs. -60.5B est.; prev. 64.7B) at 8:30 AM
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4231.85, 4220.83, and 4216.45
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4268.50, 4277.69, and 4288.26
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 4298.00, the high at 8:00 AM, and 4277.25, the low at 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4296.25, and the index closed at 4263.75 – a spread of about +32.75 points; the futures closed at 4297.75; the fair value is -1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.75, Dow by -110, and NASDAQ by -55.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was down; Shanghai was closed
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are lower
- Industrial metals are lower
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.767, up +41.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 4.918%, up +51.7 basis points
- The 2-year yield is at 5.071%, down -12.0 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.304, up from -0.842
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.151, up from +0.052
- VIX
- At 18.70 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 20.88 on October 4; low = 15.83 on September 129
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
The indices opened higher and, after some initial swings, traded higher for most of the day. Most are either at support levels or briefly breached those levels. Wednesday, most indices tried to bounce off the support levels.
All but two S&P sectors – Utilities and Energy – closed up. The dollar index declined, and so did the US Treasury Yields. The energy futures were mixed, and most of the hard and soft commodities lost ground.