Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are a little higher at 8:00 AM – moving sideways around the 4295.00 level ahead of the 8:30 AM Non-Farm Employment report- The daily bias is down, the futures are within a support zone, and there is a good chance of a bounce; odds are for elevated volatility following the economic news at 8:30 AM – watch for a break above 4305.25 or a break below 4281.75 for clarity
- The major economic data reports due during the day:
- Non-Farm Employment Change ( 171K est.; prev. 187K) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Rate ( 3.7% est.; prev. 3.8% ) at 8:30 AM
- Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4225.91, 4216.45, and 4194.92
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 44268.50, 4288.26, and 4303.12
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 4305.25, the high at 6:30 AM, and 4281.75, the low at 2:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4291.50, and the index closed at 4258.19 – a spread of about +33.25 points; the futures closed at 4290.75; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.75, Dow by +59, and NASDAQ by +27.50
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo was down; Shanghai was closed
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are lower
- Industrial metals are lower
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.717, up +23.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 4.886%, up +33.4 basis points
- The 2-year yield is at 5.013%, down -13.5 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.296, up from -0.668
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.169, up from +0.072
- VIX
- At 18.57 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 20.88 on October 4; low = 15.83 on September 129
- Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
The indices opened flat, then until 11:00 Am, and then drifted higher until the close. The day’s price action was indecisive a day before the Non-Farm Payroll report. All but four S&P sectors – Financials, Technology, Healthcare, and Real Estate – closed down.
The dollar index declined. The US Treasury Yields, the energy futures, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The hard commodities closed down.