Morning Notes – Wednesday, January 24, 2024

/ January 24, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM – trending up since 11:30 AM on Tuesday. Up more than 20 points since 9:15 PM after a sideways move.
  • The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4912.00 and a break below 4902.00.
  • The major economic data report due during the day:
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.6 est.; prev. 47.9) at 9:45 AM.
    • Flash Services PMI (47.6 est.; prev. 47.6) at 9:45 AM.
  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4866.48, 4844.37, and 4829.19.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4894.71, 4900.00, and 4926.15.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4934.33, the R3 daily pivot point, and 4912.50, the low at 5:15 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2024) closed at 4894.75, and the index closed at 4864.60 – a spread of about +30.00 points; the futures closed at 4895.00; the fair value is -0.25.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher- at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +26.50, Dow by +143, and NASDAQ by +149.75.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East mostly closed higher – Tokyo and Seoul closed lower.
  • European markets are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are lower.
    • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.142, up +12.3 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.378%, up +19.3 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.349%, down -1.8 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.207, up from -0.348
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.236, up from +0.166
  • VIX
    • At 12.50 @ 8:00 AM; below from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 15.40 on December 17; low = 12.35 on January 11; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on January 19 was a green candle closing at the all-time high.
  • Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 61.8% extension target 4597.07 is achieved, the 100% extension target is around 4901.99, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D.
    • RSI-9 is above 70.
  • The week was up +55.98 or +1.2%; the 5-week ATR is 88.33.
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and ninth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4798.90, R1=4882.98, R2=4926.15; S1=4755.73, S2=4671.65; R1/S1 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small green candle that looks like a Doji. The real body was entirely in the upper shadow of previous day’s candle.
  • Above a Horizontal Channel between 4802.40 and 4682.11, forming since December 14, 2023 – the 61.8% extension target is near 4876.00, the 100% extension target is near 4922.00, and the 161.8% extension target is near 4997.00. 
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D.
    • RSI-9 is above70; above 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up from a sideways move around 4885.00 since 6:00 PM on January 21. Above a Horizontal Trading Channel between 4841.25 and 4702.00 – the 61.8% extension target near 4927.00, the 100% extension target near 4981.00, and the 161.8% extension target near 5067.00.
    • RSI-21 has advanced to above 80.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Broke above a trading range between 4898.00 and 4873.00 at 3:00 PM on Tuesday – the 100% extension target around 4922.00 is achieved the 161.8% extension target is around 4937.00.
    • RSI-21 has been moving above 70.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 10:15 PM on Tuesday.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 7:45 AM with the price walking up the upper band.
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, January 23 in mixed volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. The day’s price-action was subdued, and most major indices traded mostly sideways for most of the day.

All but four S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, and Real Estate – closed higher. The dollar index closed up, the energy futures were mixed, the metals were up, and most soft commodities closed up. The US Treasury Yields inched higher.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Related posts