S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM – trending up since 11:30 AM on Tuesday. Up more than 20 points since 9:15 PM after a sideways move.
The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4912.00 and a break below 4902.00.
The major economic data report due during the day:
Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.6 est.; prev. 47.9) at 9:45 AM.
Flash Services PMI (47.6 est.; prev. 47.6) at 9:45 AM.
Weekly: Up
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Side-Up
15-Min: Side-Up
6-Min: Up
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4866.48, 4844.37, and 4829.19.
Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4894.71, 4900.00, and 4926.15.
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4934.33, the R3 daily pivot point, and 4912.50, the low at 5:15 AM.
Pre-Open
On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2024) closed at 4894.75, and the index closed at 4864.60 – a spread of about +30.00 points; the futures closed at 4895.00; the fair value is -0.25.
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher- at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +26.50, Dow by +143, and NASDAQ by +149.75.
Markets Around the World
Markets in the East mostly closed higher – Tokyo and Seoul closed lower.
European markets are higher.
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are mixed.
Precious metals are lower.
Industrial metals are mostly lower.
Soft commodities are mixed.
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 4.142, up +12.3 basis points from two weeks ago.
The 30-year is at 4.378%, up +19.3 basis points.
The 2-year yield is at 4.349%, down -1.8 basis points.
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.207, up from -0.348
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.236, up from +0.166
VIX
At 12.50 @ 8:00 AM; below from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
Recent high = 15.40 on December 17; low = 12.35 on January 11; Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on January 19 was a green candle closing at the all-time high.
Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 61.8% extension target 4597.07 is achieved, the 100% extension target is around 4901.99, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D.
RSI-9 is above 70.
The week was up +55.98 or +1.2%; the 5-week ATR is 88.33.
Fourth up week in the last five weeks and ninth in the previous ten weeks
The weekly pivot point=4798.90, R1=4882.98, R2=4926.15; S1=4755.73, S2=4671.65; R1/S1 pivot levels were breached
Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A small green candle that looks like a Doji. The real body was entirely in the upper shadow of previous day’s candle.
Above a Horizontal Channel between 4802.40 and 4682.11, forming since December 14, 2023 – the 61.8% extension target is near 4876.00, the 100% extension target is near 4922.00, and the 161.8% extension target is near 4997.00.
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D.
RSI-9 is above70; above 8-day EMA.
Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Moving up from a sideways move around 4885.00 since 6:00 PM on January 21. Above a Horizontal Trading Channel between 4841.25 and 4702.00 – the 61.8% extension target near 4927.00, the 100% extension target near 4981.00, and the 161.8% extension target near 5067.00.
RSI-21 has advanced to above 80.
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Broke above a trading range between 4898.00 and 4873.00 at 3:00 PM on Tuesday – the 100% extension target around 4922.00 is achieved the 161.8% extension target is around 4937.00.
RSI-21 has been moving above 70.
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 10:15 PM on Tuesday.
The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 7:45 AM with the price walking up the upper band.
Bias: Side-Up
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, January 23 in mixed volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. The day’s price-action was subdued, and most major indices traded mostly sideways for most of the day.
All but four S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, and Real Estate – closed higher. The dollar index closed up, the energy futures were mixed, the metals were up, and most soft commodities closed up. The US Treasury Yields inched higher.
