Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moving up since 8:30 AM after moving sideways since the opening of the Asian markets.
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 5236.50 for a change of sentiments.
• The major economic data report due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims (233K vs. 241K est.; prev. 250k) at 8:30 AM.
  • Final Wholesale Inventories (0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5193.56, 5164.30, and 5119.26.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5234.95, 5263.96, and 5295.1.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5280.00, the low at 2:15 AM on August 7, and 5225.75, the low at 8:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5228.75, and the index closed at 5199.50 – a spread of about +29.25 points; the futures closed at 5227.50; the fair value is +1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +44.00, Dow by +170, and NASDAQ by +214.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed- Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore closed up; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed down.
• European markets are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.966, down -32.7 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.248%, down -30.0 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.968%, down -47.5 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.002, up from -0.150.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.282, down 0.255.
• VIX
  • At 26.27 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 65.73 on August 5; low = 20.01 on August 2; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, August 7 in lower volume. The indices tried to bounce from the sharp decline since Friday but failed at the upper bound of the down gap created on Monday, August 5. The bounce is still showing some life, though.

The indices broke below the uptrend line from the October 2023 lows by making two down gaps. The second of those gaps has been filled, though, the indices are still below the upper bounds.

All but four S&P sectors – Staples, Energy, Financials, and Utilities – closed lower. The dollar index closed higher at 103.00; energy futures closed higher; precious metals closed mixed; the industrials closed mostly higher; the soft commodities closed mixed. The long duration bonds closed up, but the short duration closed down.

From Briefing.com

• S&P 500: +9.0% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite:+7.9% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +3.3% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.9% YTD
• Russell 2000: +0.4% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 6.9%; Prior -3.9%
• Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 3.73 million barrels following last week’s draw of 3.44 million barrels

Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants will receive the following data:

• 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 242,000; prior 249,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.877 mln)
• 10:00 ET: June Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.6%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +18 bcf)

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +1.5%, TSE +1.8%, CAC +1.9%
• Asia: Nikkei +2.5%, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.1%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +2.13 @ 75.27
• Nat Gas +0.09 @ 2.11
• Gold -1.80 @ 2431.00
• Silver -0.43 @ 26.83
• Copper -0.10 @ 3.94