Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM – moving down since 4:45 AM from a resistance level around 4372.00 and broke below the support at 5228.50.
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 5351.75, the high of 7:30 AM, for a change of sentiments.
• No major economic data is due during the day:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5307.76, 5297.57, and 5283.21.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5324.07, 5330.67, and 5347.26.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5372.00, the high at 4:45 AM and 5306.00, the low at 11:15 AM on Thursday.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5348.25, and the index closed at 5319.31 – a spread of about +29.00 points; the futures closed at 5341.50; the fair value is +6.75.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:15 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -6.75, Dow by -30, and NASDAQ by -50.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai closed down.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.997, down -25.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.285%, down -20.0 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.050%, down -38.9 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.053, up from -0.192.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.288, down 0.238.
• VIX
  • At 24.01 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 65.73 on August 5; low = 20.01 on August 2; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, August 8 in lower volume. The volume for most is below their respective 10-day average. The market’s bounce from the low of Monday continues and the first of two down-gaps since the all-time highs has been filled, though the resistance levels at the upper bound of the gap have not been cleared connivingly.

The indices broke below the uptrend line from the October 2023 lows by making two down gaps. The first gap was on August 2 and the second was on August 5.

All S&P sectors closed higher. The dollar index closed higher at 103.02; energy and metals – precious and industrials – futures closed higher; the soft commodities closed mostly lower. The US Treasury yields closed down as the bonds rallied.

From Briefing.com

• S&P 500: +11.5% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +11.0% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +5.6% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.8% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly Continuing Claims 1.875 mln; Prior was revised to 1.869 mln from 1.877 mln; Weekly Initial Claims 233K (Briefing.com consensus 242K); Prior was revised to 250K from 249K
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the downturn in initial jobless claims — a leading indicator — is helping to quell recession concerns.
• June Wholesale Inventories 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.6%

Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants will receive the following data:

• 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 242,000; prior 249,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.877 mln)
• 10:00 ET: June Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.6%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +18 bcf)

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.3%, TSE -0.3%, CAC -0.3%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.8%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai +0.0%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +0.87 @ 76.14
• Nat Gas -0.02 @ 2.09
• Gold +32.30 @ 2463.30
• Silver +0.81 @ 27.64
• Copper +0.03 @ 3.97