Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures have been moving sideways within a narrow – 12 points – range since 3:30 PM on Tuesday.
• The market is awaiting the release of the CPI report with bated breath.
• The odds are for a volatile day or trading – watch for a break above 5462.50 or a break below 5452.50 for clarity.
• The major economic data due during the day:
  • CPI m/m (0.2% est. prev. -0.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI m/m (0.2% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • CPI y/y (3.0% est.; prev. 3.0%) at 8:30 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5420.41, 5409.70, and 5378.43.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5450.60, 5479.95, and 5493.75.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5462.50, the high at 9:45 PM and 5452.50, the low at 10:00 PM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5458.75, and the index closed at 5434.43 – a spread of about +24.25 points; the futures closed at 5459.00; the fair value is -0.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were little changed before the CPI report – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75, Dow by +4, and NASDAQ by +9.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed down.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.846, down -29.3 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.160%, down -23.7 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.940%, down -47.0 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.094, up from -0.271.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.314, down 0.258.
• VIX
  • At 19.82 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 65.73 on August 5; low = 15.95 on August 1; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, August 13 in mostly higher volume. Dow Transports traded in lower volume. The major indices gapped up at the open following better than expected PPI report before the open.

All but one S&P sectors – Energy – closed higher. The dollar index closed lower at 102.38; energy futures closed lower, the precious metals were mixed, the industrial metals closed mostly lower, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields closed down as the bonds advanced.

From Briefing.com

• Nasdaq Composite:+14.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +13.9% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +6.2% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +3.4% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• July NFIB Small Business Optimism 93.7; Prior 91.5
• July Core PPI 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%, July PPI 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior 0.2%

Wednesday’s economic lineup feature:

• 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 6.9%)
• 8:30 ET: July CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%) and Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -3.73 mln)

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.5%, TSE +0.3%, CAC +0.4%
• Asia: Nikkei +3.5%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Shanghai +0.3%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -1.54 @ 78.37
• Nat Gas -0.03 @ 2.16
• Gold +2.70 @ 2507.60
• Silver -0.20 @ 27.77
• Copper -0.02 @ 4.05