Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moved up by more than 40 points following the release of the economic reports at 8:30 AM.
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 5487.00 for a change of sentiments.
• The major economic data due during the day:
  • Retail Sales (1.0% vs. 0.4% est. prev. -0.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Retail Sales (0.4% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims (227K vs. 236K est.; prev. 234K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index (-4.7 vs. -5.9 est.; prev. -6.6) at 8:30 AM
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (-7.0 vs. 5.4 est.; prev. 13.9) at 8:30 AM.
  • Import Prices (0.1% vs. -0.1% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Capacity Utilization (77.8% vs. 78.5% est.; prev. 78.4%) at 9:15 AM
  • Industrial Production (-0.6% vs. -0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 9:15 AM.
  • Business Inventories (0.3% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 10:00 AM.
  • NAHB Housing Market Index (43 est. prev. 42) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5463.22, 5442.39, and 5432.72.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5493.75, 5509.79, and 5534.04.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5600.75, the high at 8:00 AM on August 1 and 5487.00, the low at 8:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5475.25, and the index closed at 5455.21 – a spread of about +20.00 points; the futures closed at 5477.00; the fair value is -1.75.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +49.00, Dow by +377, and NASDAQ by +221.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed down; Mumbai was closed.
• European markets are higher – Italy is closed.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.841, down -19.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.125%, down -18.1 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.966%, down -30.0 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.125, up from -0.231.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.284, up from 0.271.
• VIX
  • At 19.82 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 65.73 on August 5; low = 15.95 on August 1; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, August 14 in lower volume. Russell 2000 closed down. The Major indices are marching towards a resistance – the downtrend line form their respective all-time highs. All but four S&P sectors closed higher. Discretionary, Utilities, and Communications sectors closed lower, and Materials closed flat. higher.

The dollar index closed lower at 102.39; energy futures closed mixed, the precious metals and the industrial metals closed down, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields closed down as the bonds advanced.

From Briefing.com

• Nasdaq Composite: +14.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +14.4% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +6.2% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +6.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.8% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 16.8%; Prior 6.9%
• July CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior -0.1%, July Core CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.1%

Wednesday’s economic lineup feature:

• 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 6.9%)
• 8:30 ET: July CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%) and Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -3.73 mln)

Overseas:

• 8:30 ET: July Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.0%), Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.4%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 232,000; prior 233,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.875 mln), July Import Prices (prior 0.0%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior 0.2%), Export Prices (prior -0.5%), Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior -0.6%), and Empire State Manufacturing Survey (prior -6.6)
• 9:15 ET: July Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.6%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 78.6%; prior 78.8%)
• 10:00 ET: June Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.5%) and August NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.com consensus 43; prior 42)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +21 bcf)
• 16:00 ET: June Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior -$54.6 bln)

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.4%, TSE +0.6%, CAC +0.8%
• Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Shanghai -0.6%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -1.33 @ 77.04
• Nat Gas +0.06 @ 2.22
• Gold -28.70 @ 2478.90
• Silver -0.44 @ 27.33
• Copper -0.01 @ 4.04