Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday, August 30, 2024

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moving sideways since 3:20 AA around 5625.00
  • The odds are for a sideways day – watch for a break above 5639.75 or a break below 5616.75 for clarity.
  • The economic data due during the day:
    • Core PCE (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
    • Personal Income (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
    • Personal Spending (0.5% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
    • Chicago PMI (45.0 est.; prev. 45.3) at 9:45 AM
    • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiments (68.0 est.; prev. 67.8) at 10:00 AM
    • Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (prev. 2.9%) at 10:00 AM.
  • Weekly: Uptrend Resumed
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5583.71, 5560.95, and 5548.33.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5638.75, 5646.95, and 5651.62.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5639.75, the high at 8:30 AM and 5616.75, the low at 12:15 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5610.25, and the index closed at 5591.96 – a spread of about +18.25 points; the futures closed at 5610.00; the fair value is +0.25.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +25.75, Dow by +85, and NASDAQ by +159.00.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed higher.
  • European markets are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are lower.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.865, down -5.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.148%, down -2.3 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.902%, down -19.9 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.037, up from -0.0186.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.283, up from 0.256.
  • VIX
    • At 15.53 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 18.06 on August 22 low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on August 23 was a relatively small green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows closing just 0.6% below the all-time high of 5669.67.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D.
    • RSI-9 is below 70.
  • The week was up 80.36 or 1.4%; the 5-week ATR is 205.60.
  • Second up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5609.52, R1=5668.31, R2=5702.00; S1=5575.83, S2=5517.04; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A relatively small red candle with almost no lower shadow and an upper shadow bigger than the real body. Moving sideways to down since August 20 around the highest level since July 16, 2024, all-time high.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D following a Bearish Divergence.
    • RSI-9 is just below 60 and the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Uptrend since 6:00 PM on August 7. Trading a range between 5669.00 and 4451.25 8:00 AM on August 16.
    • RSI-21 is just below 60.
    • At/above the EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up since 2:45 PM on Thursday from a low of 5598.00 and after declining more than 60 points. Up more than forty points.
    • RSI-21 has been moving below 60.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 8:45 PM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been contracting since 7:45 AM.
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, August 29 in mixed volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed down. Dow Jones Transportation Average and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. The indices opened flat and then traded up until midday, after which they declined a little. All but four S&P sectors – Staples, Technology, Real Estate, and Communications – closed up.

The dollar index closed higher at 101.27, the energy futures and the precious metals closed up, so did most industrial metals and soft commodities. The US Treasury yields closed higher as the bonds again slid.

From Briefing.com

The stock market had a positive disposition through most of the session. The S&P 500 (flat) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) closed near their lows of the day, though, following a sharp move lower in the afternoon.

[…]
  • S&P 500: +17.2% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +16.7% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +10.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +9.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +8.7% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • July Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$102.7 bln; Prior was revised to -$96.6 bln from -96.8 bln
  • July Adv. Retail Inventories 0.8%; Prior was revised to 0.9% from 0.7%
  • July Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.3%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.2%
  • Weekly Initial Claims 231K; Prior was revised to 233K from 232K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.868 mln; Prior was revised to 1.855 mln from 1.863 mln
  • Q2 GDP-Second Estimate 3.0%; Prior 2.8%, Q2 GDP Deflator – Second Estimate 2.5%; Prior 2.3%
  • July Pending Home Sales -5.5% (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%); Prior 4.8%
[…]

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC +0.8%
  • Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai -0.5%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.31 @ 75.90
  • Nat Gas +0.04 @ 2.14
  • Gold +22.40 @ 2560.40
  • Silver +0.78 @ 30.00
  • Copper +0.02 @ 4.23
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