Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:15 AM. Makine a rounding saucer pattern around 5480.00 level since 3:15 AM.
• Awaiting the Non-Farm Payroll report due at 8:30 AM. The odds are for a volatile day. Watch for a break above 5511.00 or a break below 5466.50.
• The economic data due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change (164K est.; prev. 114K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Rate (4.2% est.; prev. 4.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5463.22, 5432.72, and 5415.91.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5491.00, 5519.22, and 5546.30.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5511.00, the high at 11:00 PM and 5466.50, the low at 3:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5515.00, and the index closed at 5503.41 – a spread of about +11.50 points; the futures closed at 5512.25; the fair value is +2.75.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -26.00, Dow by -130, and NASDAQ by -170.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney closed up; Hong Kong was closed.
• European markets are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.733, down -12.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.022%, down -10.2 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.752%, down -26.4 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.019, up from -0.159.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.289, up from 0.267.
• VIX
  • At 22.05 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.31 on September 4; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday, September 5 in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. The indices opened higher and made the day’s high in the first hour of trading before trading lower. All but two S&P sectors – Discretionary and Communications – closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower at 101.07, the energy futures closed mixed, the metals – precious and industrials – closed higher, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields closed lower as the bonds rose.

From Briefing.com

The market had a mixed showing again today. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) settled slightly higher than yesterday, boosted by gains in some mega cap constituents. The S&P 500 settled 0.3% lower than yesterday, below its 50-day moving average (5,506).

The 10-yr note yield settled four basis points lower at 3.73% and the 2-yr note yield settled two basis points lower at 3.75%.

Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors settled with declines led by health care (-1.4%), industrials (-1.2%), and financials (-1.0%). The consumer discretionary (+1.4%), communication services (+0.5%), and information technology (+0.1%) sectors were alone in positive territory at the close, reflecting mega cap leadership.

• S&P 500: +15.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +14.1% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +8.1% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +7.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +5.2% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• August ADP Employment Change 99K (Briefing.com consensus 150K); Prior was revised to 111K from 122K
• Weekly Initial Claims 227K (Briefing.com consensus 236K); Prior was revised to 232K from 231K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.838 mln; Prior was revised to 1.860 mln from 1.868 mln
• Q2 Productivity-Rev. 2.5% (Briefing.com consensus 2.3%); Prior 2.3%, Q2 Unit Labor Costs-Rev. 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%); Prior 0.9%
• August S&P Global US Services PMI – Final 55.7; Prior 55.0
• August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 51.5% (Briefing.com consensus 51.0%); Prior 51.4%