Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Moving up since the CPI report release at 8:30 AM. Up more than 30 points.
• Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break below 5469.25 for a change of sentiments.
• The economic data due during the day:
  • CPI m/m (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Core CPI m/m (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 8:30 AM.
  • CPI y/y (2.5% vs. 2.5% est.; prev. 2.9%) at 8:30 AM.

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5475.39, 5453.61, and 5427.51.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5490.51, 5507.33, and 5546.30.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5506.00, the high at 3:45 PM on Tuesday and 5469.25, the low at 8:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5502.00, and the index closed at 5495.52 – a spread of about +6.50 points; the futures closed at 5504.00; the fair value is -2.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -22.50, Dow by -260, and NASDAQ by -96.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly down – Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mostly up – Italy is lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.650, down -18.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 3.970%, down -15.2 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.607%, down -30.5 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.055, up from -0.126.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.299, up from 0.290.
• VIX
  • At 19.06 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.31 on September 4; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 6 was a large red candle with almost no upper and lower shadows. Closed down -4.6% below the all-time high of 5669.67. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D. RSI-9 is just below 50. The week was down -239.98 or 4.2%; the 5-week ATR is 181.19. Second up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5478.31, R1=5554.00, R2=5699.58; S1=5332.73, S2=5257.04; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA, but above 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A small candle with almost no upper shadow and a long lower shadow. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D. RSI-9 is above 45 but is still below the 8-day EMA. Below 20-day EMA, above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since 4:00 PM on September 9 and after bouncing up from a low of 5394.00 near the 161.8% retracement target of a broken trading range around 5385.00. RSI-21 has declined to below 50. At/below EMA20, which is at/below the EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways within a trading range between 5506.00 and 5471.25 since 1:15 PM on September 10. RSI-21 has declined below 40. Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below EMA20. Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 2:30 AM. The Bollinger Band is expanding since 7:30 AM and the price moving with volatility from lower to the upper band and back. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, September 10 in lower volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and FT Wilshire 5000 Index closed higher. The indices opened higher and then declined until the mid-day when they turned around and moved higher. All but four S&P sectors – Staples, Energy, Financials, and Communications – closed higher.

The dollar index closed up at 101.60, the energy futures and metals – precious and industrials – closed mixed. So did most soft commodities. The US Treasury yields closed lower and the bonds rose.

From Briefing.com

The stock market exhibited upside and downside action at the index level, but moves in either direction were relatively limited. The S&P 500 (+0.5%) traded up as much as 0.5% and traded as low as 0.5% today.

[…]

Treasuries settled with gains ahead of tomorrow’s release of the August CPI. The 10-yr yield dropped five basis points to 3.65% and the 2-yr yield settled six basis point lower at 3.61%. On a related note, the $58 billion 3-yr note sale met strong demand.

[…]

• S&P 500: +15.2% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +13.4% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +8.1% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +6.0% YTD
• Russell 2000: +3.5% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Today’s economic lineup featured the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, which dropped to 91.2 in August from 93.7.