Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are a bit down at 9:00 AM. Moving sideways since Friday afternoon within a narrow range.
• Odds are for a sideways to down day. Watch for a break above 5699.00 for a change in sentiments.
• The economic data due during the day:
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index (11.5 vs. -4.1% est.; prev. -4.7%) at 8:30 AM.

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Resumed 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side-Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5601.65, 5589.67, and 5562.78.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5635.70, 5651.37, and 5675.60.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5699.00, the high at 5:00 AM and 5681.25, the low at 3:00 PM on Friday.

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5691.50, and the index closed at 5626.02 – a spread of about +65.50 points; the futures closed at 5691.00; the fair value is -0.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -4.75, Dow up by +111, and NASDAQ down by -102.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed up – Shanghai, Tokyo, and Seoul were closed.
• European markets are mostly lower – the UK and Spain are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.657, down -25.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 3.983%, down -21.2 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.595%, down -22.8 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.062, up from -0.015.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.326, up from 0.287.
• VIX
  • At 17.19 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows reversing previous week’s decline. The index is -0.8% below its all-time high of 5669.67. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D. RSI-9 is just below 50. The week was down 217.60 or 4.0%; the 5-week ATR is 179.17. Fourth up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5556.42, R1=5705.87, R2=5785.73; S1=5476.56, S2=5327.11; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A green candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D. RSI-9 is just below 60 and above the 8-day EMA. Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Uptrend Resumed
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moved above the midpoint of a horizontal channel after breaking below it in the first week September. RSI-21 has declined to below 60 from above 80. Above EMA20, which is above the EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since 2:30 PM on September 13. RSI-21 has declined to below 50 from above 70. At/below EMA20, but above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down since 2:30 PM on Friday. The Bollinger Band has been expanding a bit since 2:15 AM with the price near the lower band. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, September 13 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. All S&P sectors closed higher.

For the week, the major indices gained significantly and almost erased previous week’s decline. All S&P sectors except Energy closed higher for the week. S&P 500 is -0.8% off its all-time high, DJIA is off by -0.5%, the NASDAQ is off by -5.3%, Russell 2000 is off by -5.1%, Dow Transports is off by -3.7%, NYSE Composite is off by -0.9%, and the FT Wilshire 500 Index is off by -1.0%.

The dollar index closed up at 101.66, the energy futures, industrials metals, and most soft commodities closed up, and the precious metals closed mixed. The US Treasury yields closed mixed.

From Briefing.com

The winning week for equities ended on a strong note. The three major indices logged gains ranging from 0.5% to 0.7% and the Russell 2000 outperformed, jumping 2.5%. Upside momentum acted as its own buying catalyst, along with the belief that the economy is headed for a soft landing.

[…]

The 10-yr note yield settled three basis points lower today, and six basis points lower this week, to 3.65%. The 2-yr note yield settled seven basis points lower today, and this week, to 3.58%.

[…]

• S&P 500: +18.0% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +17.8% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +9.8% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +9.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +7.7% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• August Export Prices -0.7%; Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.7%
• August Export Prices ex-ag. -0.6%; Prior was revised to 0.8% from 1.0%
• August Import Prices -0.3%; Prior 0.1%
• August Import Prices ex-oil -0.1%; Prior 0.1%
• September Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim 69.0 (Briefing.com consensus 68.1); Prior 67.9