Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are up at 9:00 AM. Moving up since 11:30 PM on Monday. Up more than 30 points.
  • Odds are for an up day. Watch for a break below 5690.75 for a change in sentiments.
  • The economic data due during the day:
    • Retail Sales (0.1% vs. -0.2% est.; prev. 1.0%) at 8:30 AM.
    • Core Retail Sales (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
    • Capacity Utilization Rate (77.9% est.; prev. 77.8%) at 9:15 AM.
    • Industrial Production (0.2% est.; prev. -0.6%) at 9:15 AM.
    • Business Inventories (0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 10:00 AM.
  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Resumed
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5604.53, 5589.67, and 5562.78.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5651.37, 5656.08, and 5676.10.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5725.50, the high at 7:45 AM and 5690.75, the low at 9:30 PM on Monday.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5700.50, and the index closed at 5633.09 – a spread of about +67.50 points; the futures closed at 5699.25; the fair value is -0.75.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +23.00, Dow by +123, and NASDAQ by +128.75.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly up – Tokyo closed down; Shanghai and Seoul were closed.
  • European markets are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.623, down -28.1 basis points from two 5weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 3.931%, down -26.4 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.561%, down -36.2 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.062, up from -0.015.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.308, up from 0.287.
  • VIX
    • At 17.03 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows reversing previous week’s decline. The index is -0.8% below its all-time high of 5669.67.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D.
    • RSI-9 is just below 50.
  • The week was down 217.60 or 4.0%; the 5-week ATR is 179.17.
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5556.42, R1=5705.87, R2=5785.73; S1=5476.56, S2=5327.11; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend Resumed
Daily
  • A green candle with almost no upper shadow and a small lower shadow. Just below a resistance level – the high of August 30.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D and above 90.
    • RSI-9 is just above 60 and above the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend Resumed
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Trending up since 10:00 AM on September 11. Just below the upper bound of a horizontal channel. A break above will have a 61.8% extension target around 5797.00, the 100% extension target around 5838.00, and the 161.8% extension target around 5905.00.
    • RSI-21 has moved above 70.
    • Above EMA20, which is above the EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving above a two-day sideways move.
    • RSI-21 is around 65.
    • Above EMA20, but above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 2130 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been contracting back since 6:45 after expanding from 12:45 AM.
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, September 16 in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite closed down and Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume.

The indices opened lower and then mostly drifted higher for the rest of the day. DJIA has made all-time closing and intraday highs. All but two S&P sectors – Discretionary and Technology – closed higher. 

The dollar index closed down at 100.44, the energy futures closed up, the precious metals were mixed, the industrials metals were mostly up, and the soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields closed down and the bonds closed up.

From Briefing.com

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 200 points, settling at a fresh record high, and the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, closing 0.6% below its all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, registered a 0.5% decline.

[…]

The 10-yr yield settled three basis points lower at 3.62% and the 2-yr yield settled two basis points lower at 3.56%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 100.76.

  • S&P 500: +18.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +17.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +10.4% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +9.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +8.0% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • September NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing 11.5 (Briefing.com consensus -4.1); Prior -4.7
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