Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM. Moving sideways to down since 3:45 PM on Thursday between 5778.50 and 5759.00
• Odds are for a sideways to down day. Watch for a break above 5778.75 or a break below 5759.00 for clarity.
• No major economic data is due during the day.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5700.52, 5686.42, and 5659.42.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5722.56, 5733.573 and 5758.36.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5773.00, the high at 0:30 AM and 5759.00, the low at 7:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5778.00, and the index closed at 5713.64 – a spread of about +64.50 points; the futures closed at 5778.00; the fair value is +0.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:15 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -8.00, Dow up by +22, and NASDAQ down by -37.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed higher.
• European markets are mostly lower – Spain is higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.715, down -1.8 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.050%, up +2.8 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.590%, down -16.2 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.125, up from -0.019.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.335, up from 0.289.
• VIX
  • At 16.28 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, September 19 in higher volume.

The markets showed a delayed response to the 50-basis point rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday. The major indices gapped up at the open, however, most made a Doji candle by the end of the day indicating uncertainty. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite, and FT Wilshire 500 Index made all-time intraday and closing highs. All but three S&P sectors – Staples, Utilities, amd Real Estate – closed higher.

The dollar index closed up at 100.32, the energy futures and metals – precious and industrials – closed up but most soft commodities closed down. The US Treasury yields closed up and the bonds closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market had a decidedly strong showing. The S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.3%) reached fresh all-time highs and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.5%.

Weekly jobless claims remain steady below recession-like levels, the Philadelphia Fed Index tipped back into expansion (i.e. above 0.0 reading) in September, and existing home sales were slightly below expectations in August, but still reflected a tight market.

The 10-yr yield settled five basis points higher at 3.73% and the 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 3.60%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +20.0% YTD
• S&P 500: +19.8% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +12.3% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +11.1% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 219K (Briefing.com consensus 232K); Prior was revised to 231K from 230K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.829 mln; Prior was revised to 1.843 mln from 1.850 mln
• Q2 Current Account Balance -$266.8 bln; Prior was revised to -$241.0 bln from -$237.6 bln
• September Philadelphia Fed Index 1.7 (Briefing.com consensus 3.0); Prior -7.0
• August Existing Home Sales 3.86 mln (Briefing.com consensus 3.90 mln); Prior was revised to 3.96 mln from 3.95 mln.
• August Leading Homes Sales -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%); Prior -0.6%