Morning Notes – Monday, September 23, 2024

/ September 23, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Up more than 30 points since 3:00 AM.
  • Odds are for a sideways to up day. Watch for a break below 5745.25 or a break above 5781.75 for clarity.
  • The major economic data due during the day:
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.6 est.; prev. 47.9) at 9:45 AM.
    • Flash Services PMI (55.3 est.; prev. 55.7) at 9:45 AM
  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Resumed
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5684.37, 5674.49, and 5659.42.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5715.14, 5722.56, and 5733.573.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5781.75, the high at 11:45 PM and 5745.25, the low at 3:15 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5763.00, and the index closed at 5702.55 – a spread of about +60.50 points; the futures closed at 5762.00; the fair value is +1.00.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were up – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +9.50, Dow by +37, and NASDAQ by +41.00.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong and Sydney closed down. Tokyo was closed.
  • European markets are mostly higher – The UK and Italy are lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.744, up +3.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.083%, up +6.2 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.614%, down -4.0 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.130, up from 0.059.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.339, up from 0.308.
  • VIX
    • At 16.35 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 20 was a green candle with a small upper and almost no lower shadows at all-time highs.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D.
    • RSI-9 is just below 65.
  • The week was down 76.53 or 1.4%; the 5-week ATR is 157.46.
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5680.22, R1=5755.90, R2=5809.26; S1=5626.86, S2=5551.18; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small candle with almost no upper shadow and a long lower shadow. Broke above a resistance level – the high of August 30 – with the 61.8% extension target around 5800.00, the 100% extension target around 5900.00, and the 161.8% extension target around 6053.00.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D. Potential bearish Divergence.
    • RSI-9 has turned down below 70. It is above the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways to down since 4:00 AM on September 19 within an uptrend that started on September 11. Broke above the upper bound of a horizontal channel. The 61.8% extension target around 5797.00 has been achieved. The 100% extension target is around 5838.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 5905.00.
    • RSI-21 has declined below 60 from above 75 and after making Bearish Divergence.
    • At/above EMA20, which is above the EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways to down since 3:30 PM on September 19.
    • RSI-21 has been moving around 50.
    • At EMA20, which is at EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways.
  • The Bollinger Band is contracting a bit since 7:30 AM.
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday, September 20 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The indices opened lower and the trade sideways to down of the rest of the day. All but two S&P sectors – Staples and Utilities – closed down. Communications were unchanged.

For the week, the major indices rosed. S&P 500 was up 1.5%, DJIA by 1.6%, NASDAQ by 1.5%, but the leaders was Russell 2ith 2.1% rise. The Asian markets were up, and the Europeans were mixed. The dollar index closed down. Energy futures and the precious metals were up. The industrial metals and soft commodities were mixed. The US treasury yields rose, and the bonds fell.

From Briefing.com

Today’s trade featured above-average volume due to the quarterly expiration of stock options, index options, single stock futures, and index futures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a fresh all-time high, closing 0.1% above yesterday’s close, while the S&P 500 (-0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) settled slightly lower than yesterday. The Russell 2000 lagged its peers, dropping 1.1%.

[…]
  • Nasdaq Composite: +19.6% YTD
  • S&P 500: +19.6% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +11.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.6% YTD
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