Morning Notes – Tuesday, September 24, 2024

/ September 24, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM. Moving within a range.
  • Odds are for a sideways day. Watch for a break below 5771.75 or a break above 5793.50 for clarity.
  • The major economic data due during the day:
    • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (5.9% vs. 5.9% est.; prev. 6.5%) at 9:00 AM.
    • HPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. -0.1%) at 9:00 AM
    • CB Consumer Confidence (103.9 est.; prev. 103.3) at 10:00 AM
    • Richmond Manufacturing Index (-13 est.; prev. -19) at 10:00 AM
  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5704.22, 5684.37, and 5674.49.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5725.36, 5733.573, and 5749.02.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5793.50, the high at 4:30 PM and 5771.75, the low at 7:00 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5776.25, and the index closed at 5718.57 – a spread of about +58.25 points; the futures closed at 5776.75; the fair value is -1.50.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were a little higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75, Dow by +40, and NASDAQ by +16.75.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, , and Seoul closed up. Tokyo, Sydney, and Mumbai closed down.
  • European markets are mostly higher – Spain is lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/JPY
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are higher.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.761, up +4.7 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.094%, up +9.1 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.595%, down -8.2 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.156, up from 0.027.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.343, up from 0.299.
  • VIX
    • At 16.00 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 20 was a green candle with a small upper and almost no lower shadows at all-time highs.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D.
    • RSI-9 is just below 65.
  • The week was down 76.53 or 1.4%; the 5-week ATR is 157.46.
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5680.22, R1=5755.90, R2=5809.26; S1=5626.86, S2=5551.18; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small candle with small upper and lower shadows near all-time highs. Broke above a resistance level – the high of August 30 – with the 61.8% extension target around 5800.00, the 100% extension target around 5900.00, and the 161.8% extension target around 6053.00.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D.
    • RSI-9 has turned down below 70. It is above the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 4:00 AM on September 19 between 5797.50 and 5733.50. Trending up since September 11. Broke above the upper bound of a horizontal channel. The 61.8% extension target around 5797.00 has been achieved. The 100% extension target is around 5838.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 5905.00.
    • RSI-21 is around 55.
    • At/above EMA20, which is above the EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 3:30 PM on September 19 between 5797.50 and 5733.50.
    • RSI-21 has been moving around just above 50.
    • At EMA20, which is at EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 1:00 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band is expanded and has been flattening since 5:15 AM.
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, September 23 in lower volume. Russell 2000 closed lower. The day’s price action was muted, and most indices stayed within a narrow range. All but four S&P sectors – Financials, Technology, Healthcare, and Communications – closed higher. The dollar index closed higher at 100.56. Energy futures and metals – precious and industrial – were mixed. So were the soft commodities. The US treasury yields rose, and the bonds fell.

From Briefing.com

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) and S&P 500 (+0.3%) extended further into record territory and the Nasdaq Composite settled 0.1% higher. The Russell 2000 underperformed, dropping 0.3% after outperforming its peers of late. 

[…]

The 10-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 3.74% and the 2-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 3.58%.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +19.9% YTD
  • S&P 500: +19.7% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +12.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +9.5% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • September S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI – Prelim 47.0; Prior 47.9
  • September S&P Global US Services PMI – Prelim 55.4; Prior 55.7
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