Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:15 AM. Moving up since 1:30 PM on Wednesday. Up more than 60 points to around 5825.00 level.
• Odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels. Watch for a break below 5805.00 for a change of sentiments.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Final GDP (3.0% vs, 3.0% est.; prev. 3.0%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Claims (218K vs. 224K est.; prev. 222K) at 8:30 AM,
  • Core Durable Goods Orders (0.5% vs.0.1% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Durable Goods Orders (0.0% vs. -2.8% est.; prev. 9.8%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Final GDP Price Index (2.5% vs. 2.5% est.; prev. 2.5%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Pending Home Sales (0.9% est.; prev. -5.5%) at 10:00 AM.

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5741.03, 5712.06, and 5698.99.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5754.09, 5767.14, and 5784.57.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5828.50, the high at 7:00 PM and 5805.00, the low at 1:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5779.50, and the index closed at 5722.26 – a spread of about +57.25 points; the futures closed at 5779.00; the fair value is +0.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +42.50, Dow by +162, and NASDAQ by +285.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Singapore closed down.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD	Dollar index USD/CHF USD/JPY INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.788, up +43.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.140%, up +17.1 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.557%, down -9.1 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.231, up from -0.290.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.352, up from 0.611.
• VIX
  • At 15.24 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 20 was a green candle with a small upper and almost no lower shadows at all-time highs. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D. RSI-9 is just below 65. The week was down 76.53 or 1.4%; the 5-week ATR is 157.46. Fourth up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5680.22, R1=5755.90, R2=5809.26; S1=5626.86, S2=5551.18; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A small Spinning Top candle. The index is drifting higher for the past few days with very narrow ranges.  On September 19, the cash index broke above a resistance level, the high of August 30. The 61.8% extension target is around 5800.00, the 100% extension target is around 5900.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 6053.00. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below the %D and below 90. RSI-9 has turned down below 70. It is above the 8-day EMA. Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Drifting higher since 10:00 AM on September 20. Trending up since September 11. Broke above the upper bound of a horizontal channel. The December futures achieved the 61.8% extension target around 5797.00 and are nearing the 100% extension target of around 5838.00. The 161.8% extension target is around 5905.00. RSI-21 has risen above 75. Above EMA20, which is above the EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Broke above an Ascending Triangle at the start of the Asian session. The 61.8% extension target is around 5837.00, the 100% extension target is around 5860.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 5900.00. RSI-21 is above 70 but has declined from near 80. Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 6:30 AM. The Bollinger Band has been contracting since 6:30 AM with the price falling down to the lower band. Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, September 25 in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. The day’s price action was muted, and most indices drifted lower within a narrow range in a mirror image of previous day’s action. All but two S&P sectors – Technology and Utilities – closed lower. The dollar index closed higher at 100.62. Energy and metals – precious and industrial – futures closed mixed. Most of the soft commodities closed higher. The US treasury yields advanced, and the bonds fell.

From Briefing.com

[…]

The major indices trudged through a lackluster session, succumbing to some consolidation interest that had the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 trading in negative territory for the bulk of today’s trade. The Nasdaq for its part kept its ahead above water most of the day, riding on NVDIA’s shoulders.

[…]

The 2-yr note yield settled the cash session unchanged at 3.55% while the 10-yr note yield jumped five basis points to 3.78% in a continued curve-steepening trade.

[…]

• Nasdaq Composite: +20.5%
• S&P 500: +20.0%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.3%
• S&P Midcap 400: +11.1%
• Russell 2000: +8.4%

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• MBA Mortgage Applications Index +11.0% wk/wk with refinance applications +20% and purchase applications +1%
• August New Home Sales 716K (Briefing.com consensus 695K); Prior was revised to 751K from 739K