Morning Notes – Thursday, September 26, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:15 AM. Moving up since 1:30 PM on Wednesday. Up more than 60 points to around 5825.00 level.
• Odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels. Watch for a break below 5805.00 for a change of sentiments.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Final GDP (3.0% vs, 3.0% est.; prev. 3.0%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Claims (218K vs. 224K est.; prev. 222K) at 8:30 AM,
  • Core Durable Goods Orders (0.5% vs.0.1% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Durable Goods Orders (0.0% vs. -2.8% est.; prev. 9.8%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Final GDP Price Index (2.5% vs. 2.5% est.; prev. 2.5%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Pending Home Sales (0.9% est.; prev. -5.5%) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5741.03, 5712.06, and 5698.99.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5754.09, 5767.14, and 5784.57.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5828.50, the high at 7:00 PM and 5805.00, the low at 1:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5779.50, and the index closed at 5722.26 – a spread of about +57.25 points; the futures closed at 5779.00; the fair value is +0.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +42.50, Dow by +162, and NASDAQ by +285.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Singapore closed down.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.788, up +43.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.140%, up +17.1 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.557%, down -9.1 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.231, up from -0.290.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.352, up from 0.611.
• VIX
  • At 15.24 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, September 25 in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. The day’s price action was muted, and most indices drifted lower within a narrow range in a mirror image of previous day’s action. All but two S&P sectors – Technology and Utilities – closed lower. The dollar index closed higher at 100.62. Energy and metals – precious and industrial – futures closed mixed. Most of the soft commodities closed higher. The US treasury yields advanced, and the bonds fell.

From Briefing.com

The major indices trudged through a lackluster session, succumbing to some consolidation interest that had the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 trading in negative territory for the bulk of today’s trade. The Nasdaq for its part kept its ahead above water most of the day, riding on NVDIA’s shoulders.

The 2-yr note yield settled the cash session unchanged at 3.55% while the 10-yr note yield jumped five basis points to 3.78% in a continued curve-steepening trade.

[…]

• Nasdaq Composite: +20.5%
• S&P 500: +20.0%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.3%
• S&P Midcap 400: +11.1%
• Russell 2000: +8.4%

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• MBA Mortgage Applications Index +11.0% wk/wk with refinance applications +20% and purchase applications +1%
• August New Home Sales 716K (Briefing.com consensus 695K); Prior was revised to 751K from 739K