Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM. The futures have been moving sideways between 6096.25 and 6080.00.
• Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 6096.25 for clarity.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change (227K vs. 218K est.; prev. 36K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Rate (4.2% vs. 4.1% est.; prev. 4.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings (0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (73.3 est.; prev. 71.8) at 10:00 AM
  • Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (prev. 2.6%) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6072.90, 6061.06, and 6045.48.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6094.55, 6102.50, and 6110.46.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6096.25, the high at 3:45 PM on Thursday and 6080.00, the low at 6:15 PM.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 6088.75, and the index closed at 6075.11 – a spread of about +13.50 points; the futures closed at 6088.75; the fair value is +0.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +6.00, Dow by +27, and NASDAQ by +38.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed up.
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.175, down -25.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.342%, down -26.1 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.150%, down -20.7 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.025, down from 0.068.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.167, down from 0.178.
• VIX
  • At 13.20 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 18.79 on November 20; low = 12.89 on December 4; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, December 5 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and FT Wilshire 5000 Index made all-time intraday highs.

The S&P sectors closed mixed – five up and six down. Dollar index and crude oil closed lower. So did the precious metals and Industrial metals. The soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields closed down and the bonds up.

From Briefing.com

Today’s market activity was relatively subdued after yesterday’s record highs for the major indices. The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%) fluctuated around their prior closing levels, with the Russell 2000 trailing behind, closing 1.3% lower.

Treasury yields retreated from earlier highs, settling slightly mixed. The 10-year yield, which briefly surpassed 4.22%, settled unchanged for the day at 4.18%. The 2-year yield has eased from 4.17% to 4.15%, three basis points higher than yesterday.

[…]

• Nasdaq Composite: +31.2%
• S&P 500: +27.4%
• S&P Midcap 400: +19.7%
• Russell 2000: +18.2%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +18.8%

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 224K (Briefing.com consensus 213K); Prior was revised to 215K from 213K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.871 mln; Prior was revised to 1.896 mln from 1.907 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the totality of the report isn’t signaling any major changes with respect to labor market trends, which have connoted some softening but no real breakage on the employment front.
• October Trade Balance -$73.8 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$75.1 bln); Prior was revised to -$83.8 bln from -$84.4 bln.