Morning Notes – Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are a little changed at 8:45 AM. The futures have been moving sideways between 6071.25 and 6057.50.
• Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 6071.25 and 6083.25 for clarity.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Revised Nonfarm Productivity (2.2% vs. 2.3% est.; prev. 2.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Revised Unit Labor Costs (0.8% vs. 1.3% est.; prev. 1.9%) at 8:30 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6048.63, 6033.39, and 6003.98.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6072.58, and 6090.96, and 6099.97.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6071.25, the high at 6:30 AM and 6057.50, the low at 4:45 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 6065.75, and the index closed at 6052.85 – a spread of about +13.00 points; the futures closed at 6065.75; the fair value is 0.0.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:45AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +0.75, Dow down by -98, and NASDAQ up by +27.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong and Sydney closed down.
• European markets are mixed – Germany, Spain, and Italy are higher; the U.K., France, Switzerland, and STOXX 600 are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.203, down -7.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.389%, down -8.0 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.131%, down -15.9 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.072, up from 0.083.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.186, down from 0.004.
• VIX
  • At 14.11 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 18.79 on November 20; low = 12.89 on December 4; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, December 9 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in higher volume.

The dollar index, energy, and metals – precious and industrials – closed higher. The soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields were up and bonds down. All but two S&P sectors – Healthcare and Real Estate – closed down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were unable to follow up Friday’s record highs with new record highs today. They opened the day lower and never managed to reclaim a posture in positive territory as buyers lacked enthusiasm ahead of several key events this week, ….

Shortly after the open, advancers led decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq by a better than 2-to-1 margin, but by the close decliners held an edge over advancers at both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

The 2-yr note yield settled the session up three basis points at 4.13% and the 10-yr note yield settled the session up five basis points at 4.20%.

In related news, the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a 0.1 percentage point increase in inflation expectations for the year ahead (to 3.0%), three years ahead (to 2.6%), and five years ahead (to 2.9%).

[…]

• Nasdaq Composite: +31.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +26.9% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +19.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +18.0% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +17.9% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• October Wholesale Inventories increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.2% decline in September.