Directional Bias for the Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving up since 4:15 PM on Thursday and are up more than 20 points after gaining more than 30 points.- Odds are for a sideways to a down day from the pre-open levels around 6080.00. Watch for a break above 6087.75 and a break below 6061.25 for clarity.
- There are no notable economic data due during the day.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6051.70, 6029.89 and 6003.98.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6079.68, 6082.16, and 6092.59.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 6087.75, the high at 11:00 AM on Thursday and 6061.25, the low at 10:15 PM on Thursday.
Pre-Open
- On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 6066.50, and the index closed at 6051.25 – a spread of about +15.25 points; the futures closed at 6060.75; the fair value is +5.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +22.25, Dow by +35, and NASDAQ by +179.75.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Sydney closed down; Mumbai, Seoul, and Singapore closed up.
- European markets are mostly higher – STOXX 600 is lower.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher.
- Precious metals are higher.
- Industrial metals are mixed.
- Soft commodities are mostly higher.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.334, up +15.9 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.547%, up +18.5 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.201%, up +4.2 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.133, up from 0.016.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.213, down from 0.187.
- VIX
- At 13.38 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 18.79 on November 20; low = 12.89 on December 4; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, December 12 in mostly lower volume. S&P 500 traded in higher volume.
The dollar index closed up. Crude oil, metals and most soft commodities closed lower. The US Treasury yields were up and bonds down. All but two S&P sectors – Staples and Communications – closed down.
From Briefing.com
The S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) closed with losses. The Russell 2000 underperformed other major indices, dropping 1.3%. An overall downside bias was reflected in negative market breadth, which favored decliners by a 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a 5-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq.
[…]The 10-yr Treasury note yield jumped five basis points to 4.32% and the 2-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 4.19%.
[…]- Nasdaq Composite: +32.6% YTD
- S&P 500: +26.9% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +18.4% YTD
- Russell 2000: +16.5% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +16.5% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- Weekly Initial Claims 242K (Briefing.com consensus 220K); Prior was revised to 225K from 224K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.886 mln; Prior 1.871 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims are the highest they have been since mid-October, which will contribute to the belief that the labor market is softening — a softening the Fed would like to prevent from becoming anything more by lessening its policy restraint.
- November PPI 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.2%, November Core PPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.3%
- The key takeaway from the report is that inflation at the producer level is moving in the wrong direction, evidenced by the large jump in goods inflation, particularly food, that raises the potential for pass-through pressures for consumers.
