Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Monday, December 16, 2024

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving up since 4:15 PM on Friday and are up more than 30 points.
  • Odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels around 6075.00. Watch for a break below 6056.00 for a change in sentiments.
  • The notable economic data due during the day:
    • Empire State Manufacturing PMI (0.2 vs. 6.4 vs. 31.2) at 8:30 AM.
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.4 est.; prev. 49.7) at 9:45 AM
    • Flash Services PMI (55.7 est.; prev. 56.1) at 9:45 AM.
  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6053.85, 6035.77, and 6029.89.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6078.58, 6090.85, and 6098.56.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 6084.75, the high at 9:45 AM on Friday and 6056.00, the low at 12:45 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 6055.75, and the index closed at 6051.09 – a spread of about +4.50 points; the futures closed at 6055.50; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +19.00, Dow by +51, and NASDAQ by +109.75.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Singapore closed up.
  • European markets are lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are lower.
    • Industrial metals are mixed.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.396, up +22.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.600%, up +23.8 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.247%, up +8.8 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.149, up from 0.016.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.204, down from 0.187.
  • VIX
    • At 14.16 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 18.79 on November 20; low = 12.89 on December 4; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 13 was a relatively small red Harami spinning top candle near all-time highs.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D.
    • RSI-9 is above 65. Potential Bearish Divergence.
  • The week was down -39.18 or -0.6%; the 5-week ATR is 98.49.
  • Second week in the last five weeks and fourth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=6057.86 R1=6085.82, R2=6120.56; S1=6023.12, S2=5995.16; S1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A relatively small red spinning top candle.
  • On September 19, the cash index broke above a resistance level, the high of August 30. The 161.8% extension target, around 6053.00, is achieved.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D.
    • RSI-9 is around 55; below the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting down within a down-sloping trading range since 10:00 AM on December 4 with a support around 6039.75.
    • RSI-21 has bounced up to above 60 from near 34.
    • Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20.
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up since 12:30 PM on Friday, up more than 35 points.
    • RSI-21 has moved above 60.
    • Above EMA 20, which above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 4:00 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 4:00 Am with the price near the upper band.
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday, December 13 in mostly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher, and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.

For the week, most US indices closed down. NASDAQ was an exception. Markets in Asia and Europe closed mixed. The dollar index and energy futures were up, and metals – precious and industrials – were mixed. Most soft commodities closed down. The US Treasury yields were up and bonds down. All but two S&P sectors – Discretionary and Communications – closed down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) closed within 0.2% of their prior closing levels while the Russell 2000 underperformed, dropping 0.6%.

[…]

The 10-yr yield jumped eight basis points to 4.40% and the 2-yr yield settled five basis points higher at 4.24% ahead of next week’s expected rate cut. The 10-yr yield is 25 basis points higher than last Friday and the 2-yr yield is 14 basis points higher for the week.

[…]
  • Nasdaq Composite: +32.7% YTD
  • S&P 500: +26.9% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +17.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +15.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +16.3% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • November Export Prices 0.0%; Prior was revised to 1.0% from 0.8%
  • November Export Prices ex-ag. 0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.8% from 0.6%
  • November Import Prices 0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.3%
  • November Import Prices ex-oil 0.0%; Prior 0.2%
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