Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM. They have been moving down since 1:30 PM on Monday and are down more than 30 points.
  • Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 6068.00 for a change in sentiments.
  • The notable economic data due during the day:
    • Retail Sales (0.7% vs. 0.6% vs. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM.
    • Core Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM.
    • Capacity Utilization Rate (77.3% est.; prev. 77.1%) at 9:15 AM.
    • Industrial Production (0.3% est.; prev. -0.3%) at 9:15 AM.
    • Business Inventories (0.2% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 10:00 AM.
    • NAHB Housing Market Index (47 est.; prev. 46) at 10:00 AM.
  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min: Down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6035.77, 6029.89, and 6003.98.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6068.10, 6085.19, and 6092.57.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 6068.00, the high at 6:15 AM and 6041.25, the low at 1:00 PM on Friday.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 6080.00, and the index closed at 6074.08 – a spread of about +6.00 points; the futures closed at 6080.50; the fair value is -0.50.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -25.50, Dow by -226, and NASDAQ by -67.50.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up.
  • European markets are lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are mixed.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.405, up +20.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.600%, up +24.1 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.264%, up +8.2 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.140, up from 0.006.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.196, down from 0.161.
  • VIX
    • At 15.10 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 18.79 on November 20; low = 12.89 on December 4; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 13 was a relatively small red Harami spinning top candle near all-time highs.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D.
    • RSI-9 is above 65. Potential Bearish Divergence.
  • The week was down -39.18 or -0.6%; the 5-week ATR is 98.49.
  • Second week in the last five weeks and fourth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=6057.86 R1=6085.82, R2=6120.56; S1=6023.12, S2=5995.16; S1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A relatively small green candle near all-time highs.
  • On September 19, the cash index broke above a resistance level, the high of August 30. The 161.8% extension target, around 6053.00, is achieved.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D.
    • RSI-9 is around 55; below the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting sideways to down between 6111.00 and 6039.75 since 10:00 AM on December 4. Near the lower bound of the range.
    • RSI-21 has declined to 35 from above 70.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving down since 1:30 PM on Monday, down more than 30 points.
    • RSI-21 has declined to 35.
    • Below EMA 20, which below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down since 6:15 PM on Monday.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 7:30 AM with the price near the lower band.
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday, December 16 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. DJIA has closed down for the eight days and 11 out of past 13 days.

The dollar index and energy futures were down, and metals – precious and industrials – were mixed. Most soft commodities closed down. The US Treasury yields were up and bonds down. All but four S&P sectors – Discretionary, Industrials, Technology, and Communications – closed down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 (+0.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%) closed off session highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was trading higher initially, settled 0.3% lower.

[…]

The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up one basis point to 4.41%, while the 2-year yield has similarly risen one basis point to 4.25%.

[…]

The communication services (+1.3%), consumer discretionary (+1.7%), and information technology (+1.0%) sectors showed the largest advances among the four sectors in the green.

[…]
  • Nasdaq Composite: +31.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: +27.3% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +17.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +16.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +16.0% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • December NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing 0.2 (Briefing.com consensus 10.0); Prior 31.2
  • December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI – Prelim 48.3; Prior 49.7
  • December S&P Global US Services PMI – Prelim 58.5; Prior 56.1
Exit mobile version