Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. They have been trending down since 9:30 AM on Thursday and have declined more than 140 points. However, they have been bouncing since 7:00 AM, gaining more than 40 points.
• Odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways to an up move from the pre-open level around 5900.00. Watch for a break below 5866.00 for clarity.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Core PCE (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Personal Income (0.3% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.7%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Personal Spending (0.4% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (74.1 est.; prev. 74.0) at 10:00 AM.
  • Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (prev. 0.3%) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5811.69, 5799.98, and 5784.92.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5866.07, 5897.51, and 5918.25.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5927.75, the high at 2:00 PM on Thursday and 5866.00, the low at 7:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5934.25, and the index closed at 5867.08 – a spread of about +66.25 points; the futures closed at 5934.00; the fair value is +0.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -34.75, Dow by -160, and NASDAQ by -172.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed lower.
• European markets are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.576, up +40.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.739%, up +39.7 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.880%, up +73.0 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.245, up from 0.025.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.163, down from 0.167.
• VIX
  • At 23.635 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 28.32 on December 18; low = 12.89 on December 4; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday, December 19 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain. Major indices were higher until 2:00 PM when they turned down and traded lower for the rest of the day.

The dollar index was up’ energy futures were mixed; metals were down; and most soft commodities closed down. The US Treasury yields was up, and the bonds closed down. All but three S&P sectors – Financials, Technology, and Utilities – closed down.

From Briefing.com

Ultimately, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each settled 0.1% lower than yesterday. The deterioration was related to rising rates and rollover action in mega cap names. The 10-yr yield jumped another eight basis points today to 4.57% following a batch of economic data (initial jobless claims, third estimate for Q3 GDP, existing home sales, and leading indicators) that was better than expected.

• Nasdaq Composite: +29.1% YTD
• S&P 500: +23.0% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +12.3% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +11.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +9.6% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 220K (Briefing.com consensus 237K); Prior 242K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.874 mln; Prior was revised to 1879 mln from 1.886 mln
• Q3 GDP – Third Estimate 3.1% (Briefing.com consensus 2.8%); Prior 2.8%, Q3 GDP Deflator – Third Estimate 1.9% (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%); Prior 1.9%
• December Philadelphia Fed Index -16.4 (Briefing.com consensus 3.0); Prior -5.5
• November Existing Home Sales 4.15 mln (Briefing.com consensus 4.10 mln); Prior 3.96 mln
• November Leading Indicators 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior -0.4%