Directional Bias for the Day:
- Odds are for a down day, and a sideways move from the pre-open level around 5820.00. Watch for a break above 5848.75 and a break below 5810.00 for clarity.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- Federal Budget at 2:00 PM.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5763.61, 5753.03, and 5722.10.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5807.78, 5818.80, and 5848.68.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 5848.75, the high at 1:15 AM, and 5810.00, the low at 4:30 AM.
Pre-Open
- On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5866.50, and the index closed at 5827.04 – a spread of about +39.75 points; the futures closed at 5866.25; the fair value is +0.25.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -36.00, Dow by -18, and NASDAQ by -200.75.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed lower.
- European markets are lower.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher.
- Precious metals are higher.
- Industrial metals are higher.
- Soft commodities are mostly higher.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.769, up +13.9 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.946%, up +12.4 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.388%, up +5.4 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.381, up from 0.296.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.177, up from 0.192.
- VIX
- At 21.21 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 28.32 on December 18; low = 14.27 on December 24; Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Daily |
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Previous Session
For the week the major US indices closed lower in higher volume. Markets in Asia were mixed but the European markets closed higher. The dollar index was up; energy, metals, and the soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields closed up, and the bonds down.
From Briefing.com
Major equity indices registered significant declines today, driven by a surge in market rates following the release of this morning’s labor market data. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 700 points, or 1.6%.
[…]The 10-year Treasury yield, which was at 4.70% prior to the report, jumped to 4.78% in its aftermath before settling at 4.78%, up nine basis points from yesterday. The 2-year yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, rose from 4.29% just before the report to 4.40%, an increase of 13 basis points from yesterday.
[…]Energy stocks were another bright spot, leading the S&P 500 energy sector to close 0.3% higher, driven by commodity prices. WTI crude oil futures rose 3.6% to $76.63/bbl and natural gas futures jumped 4.6% to $3.40/mmbtu.
- S&P Midcap 400: -0.7% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -0.8% YTD
- S&P 500: -0.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: -1.8% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.4% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- December Nonfarm Payrolls 256K (Briefing.com consensus 154K); Prior was revised to 212K from 227K, December Nonfarm Private Payrolls 223K (Briefing.com consensus 140K); Prior was revised to 182K from 194K,
- December Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%, December Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Briefing.com consensus 4.2%); Prior 4.2%, December Average Workweek 34.3 (Briefing.com consensus 34.3); Prior 34.3
- January Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim 73.2 (Briefing.com consensus 73.5); Prior 74.0
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers’ worries about the future path of inflation increased, which is not what the Fed wants to hear, especially as plans to implement new tariffs loom on the near horizon.
