Morning Notes – Tuesday, January 14, 2025

/ 10 hours ago January 14, 2025

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving within a range between 5918.50 and 5874.75 since 4:00 Pm on Monday.
  • Odds are for an up day, with a good chance of sideways move from the pre-open level around 5900.00. Watch for a break above 5918.50 or a break below 5874.75 for clarity.
  • The notable economic data due during the day:
    • PPI (0.2% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
    • Core PPI (0.0% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Down-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5836.61, 5811.41, and 5778.10.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5866.03, 5890.35, and 5905.17.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5918.50, the high at 8:30 AM, and 5874.75, the low at 8:15 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5875.25, and the index closed at 5836.22 – a spread of about +39.00 points; the futures closed at 5874.50; the fair value is +0.75.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +24.00, Dow by -+121 and NASDAQ by +114.50.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo and Singapore closed down.
  • European markets are mostly higher – the U.K. is lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.787, up +24.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.956%, up +20.3 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.396%, up +13.6 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.391, up from 0.283.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.169, down from 0.210.
  • VIX
    • At 18.69 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 22.04 on January 13; low = 14.27 on December 24; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on January 10 was a relatively large Bearish Engulfing candle, breaking below a support level – the low of the week of December 16, 2024.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D.
    • RSI-9 is below 50 after making a Bearish Divergence in December.
  • The week was down -115.43 or -1.9%; the 5-week ATR is 134.33.
  • Fourth down week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5885.29 R1=5962.79, R2=6098.55; S1=5749.53, S2=5672.03; R1/S1 pivot levels were breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily
  • A relatively large green candle with almost no upper shadow and a small lower shadow. Broke below a Descending Triangle – the 61.8% extension target is near 56566.88, which is 1% below the high, and the 100% extension target is near 5564.63, which is 9.2% below the high.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D.
    • RSI-9 is around 35 and below the 8-day EMA.
  • Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down since 2:00 PM on December 16 within a down trending regression channel; bounced up to the middle of the channel.
    • RSI-9 is just below 60, after making a Bullish Divergence.
    • Above EMA20, but below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up since 4:30 AM on Monday. Up more than 90 points from the lows to around 5900.00.
    • RSI-21 is just below 60.
    • At/above EMA 20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting sideways to up since 8:45 PM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 7:00 AM.
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, January 13 in lower volume. NASDAQ Composite closed lower. The major indices gapped down at the open, made the day’s lows in the first half-hour of trading, tested that level around mid-day, and then turned around, closing near the highs.

The dollar index was up; energy futures were mixed; the precious metals were down; the industrial metals were mostly down; and the soft commodities were mostly up. The US Treasury yields closed up, and the bonds down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market started the week on a mixed note. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) closed lower, clipped by losses in the mega cap space, while the S&P 500 (+0.2%), Russell 2000 (+0.2%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) closed higher.

[…]

The 10-yr yield rose another three basis points today to 4.80% and the 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 4.40%. The 30-yr bond yield settled just below 5.00%, up two basis points to 4.99%.

[…]
  • S&P Midcap 400: +0.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -1.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: -0.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -1.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.6% YTD
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