Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Futures have been moving up since 7:15 AM within a trading range.
• Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break above 6092.00 or a break below 6074.25 for clarity.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • ECB Main Refinancing Rate (2.90% vs 2.90% est.; prev. 3.15%) at 8:15 AM.
  • ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 8:15 AM.
  • Advance GDP (2.3% vs. 2.7% est.; prev. 3.1%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Claims (207K vs. 224K est.; prev. 223K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Advance GDP Price Index (2.2% vs. 2.5% est.; prev. 1.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • ECB Press Conference at 8:45 AM.
  • Pending Home Sale (0.0% est.; prev. 2.0%) at 10:00 AM

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6028.42, 6012.96, and 5979.53.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6062.83, 6074.54, and 6089.71.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6092.00, the high at 6:15 AM, and 6074.25, the low at 7:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 6068.25, and the index closed at 6039.31 – a spread of about +29.00 points; the futures closed at 6067.50; the fair value is +0.75.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +18.25, Dow down by -72 and NASDAQ up by +126.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed higher – Shanghai, Hong Koing, Seoul and Singapore were closed.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are mixed.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.544, down -11.3 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.780%, down -9.5 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.222%, down -4.4 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.322, up from 0.391.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.236, down from 0.218.
• VIX
  • At 15.93 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 22.04 on January 13; low = 14.27 on December 24; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, January 29 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The major indices opened lower and then traded lower until FOMC press conference at 2:30 PM, when they recovered the ground lost earlier.

The dollar index was up; energy futures were mixed; the precious metals were up and so were the industrial metals. The soft commodities were mostly up. The US Treasury yields closed mixed, and so did the bonds. The 30-year bond yields advanced and shorter duration fell.

From Briefing.com

The stock market had a somewhat mixed showing today. There was not a lot of conviction on either side of the tape in the early going as participants waited on the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 ET. 

The FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, which was widely expected by the market. The language of the directive changed to exclude the line that “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective…” Instead, the January directive said that “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

The S&P 500 closed 0.5% lower, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 0.3% decline. The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, settled two basis points higher at 4.23% and the 10-yr yield was unchanged at 4.56%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.1.% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +3.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +2.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +1.7% YTD