Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; futures are moving up since 5:00 AM and are up more than 25 points.
• Odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways to a down move from the pre-open level around 6045.00 day. Watch for a break above 6053.00 or a break below 6020.25 for clarity.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (183K vs. 148K est.; prev. 176K) at 8:15 AM.
  • Trade Balance (-98.4B vs. -96.5B est.; prev. -78.8B) at 8:30 AM.
  • Final Services PMI (52.9 est.; prev. 52.8) at 9:45 AM.
  • ISM Services PMI (54.2 est.; prev. 54.1) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5993.15, 5981.63, and 5969.65.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6041.74, 6051.97, and 6078.65.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6053.00, the high at 8:15 PM, and 6020.25, the low at 5:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 6062.50, and the index closed at 6037.88 – a spread of about +24.50 points; the futures closed at 6063.00; the fair value is -0.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were down – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -23.25, Dow by -84 and NASDAQ by -141.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Singapore were down. Tokyo, Sydney, and Seoul closed up. Shanghai was closed.
• European markets are mostly higher – France and Italy are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.510, down -7.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.749%, down -6.4 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.216%, down -6.7 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.294, down from 0.299.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.239, up from 0.231.
• VIX
  • At 17.39 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 22.51 on January 27; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, February 4 in lower volume. The major indices opened higher and drifted higher for most of the day, though they still did break above the resistance of the upper bound of the Monday’s down-gap.

The dollar index and energy futures were down; metals – precious and industrials – were up; most of the soft commodities were up too. The US Treasury declined and the bonds advanced. The S&P sectors closed mixed – five up, four down, and one unchanged.

From Briefing.com

Today’s market showed a positive bias, with investor sentiment buoyed by several key developments related to tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and corporate earnings growth.

[…]

The S&P 500 logged a 0.7% gain and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.4%.

The 2-yr yield, at 4.24% before 10:00 ET, dropped five basis points from yesterday to 4.22%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4.7% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +3.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.7% YTD
• S&P 500: +2.7% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +1.8% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• December Factory Orders -0.9% (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%); Prior was revised to -0.8% from -0.4%
• December JOLTS – Job Openings 7.600 mln; Prior was revised to 8.156 mln from 8.098 mln