Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher. The futures have been trending within a range since the NYSE close.
• Odds are for a sideways day with increased volatility. For clarity watch for a break above 5900.50 or a break below 5858.50.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Core PCE Price Index (0.3% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Personal Income (0.9% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Personal Spending (-0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.8%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Goods Trade Balance (-153.3B vs. -116.9B est.; prev. -122.0B) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Wholesales Inventories (0.7% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. -0.5%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Chicago PMI (40.5 est.; prev. 39.5) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5858.78, 59=843.31, and 5810.73.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5888.06, 5908.49, 5918.04.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5900.50, the high at 6:30 AM, and 5858.50, the low at 10:45 PM.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5877.50, and the index closed at 5861.57 – a spread of about +16.00 points; the futures closed at 5876.25; the fair value is +1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +15.50, Dow by +211 and NASDAQ by +11.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed down.
• European markets are mixed. Germany, France, Italy, and STOXX 600 are lower. the U.K., Spain, and Switzerland are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mainly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.265, down -27.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.533%, down -23.4 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.061%, down -26.0 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.204, down from 0.215.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.268, up from 0.231.
• VIX
  • At 21.11 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 22.51 on January 27; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed sharply lower on Thursday, February 27 in higher volume. The major indices opened higher but turned down in the first half-hour of trading. They moved sideways until 2:00 PM with elevated volatility before plunging in the final two -hours of trading. S&P lost more than 100 points after 1:00 PM by the close.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed up; the precious metals closed down; the industrial metals and the soft commodities closed mainly down. The US Treasuries advanced a little and the bonds declined. All but three S&P sectors–Energy, Financials, and Real Estate–closed down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500, which climbed above 6,000 yesterday, fell below 5,900 today. The mega-cap cohort was mostly responsible for the setback, which turned into a broader affair when selling in the mega-cap space picked up in the afternoon trade. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) declined 2.6%.

That weakness undercut the market cap-weighted indices to a larger degree. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.9% today. Notably, the S&P 500 financial (+0.6%), energy (+0.5%), real estate (+0.4%), and consumer staples (+0.02%) sectors finished higher in a down tape painted by the overbearing brush stroke of the information technology sector (-3.8%), which is the market’s most heavily-weighted sector.

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 22 increased by 22,000 to 242,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 15 were 1867K (prior revised to 1867K from 1869K)
• The second estimate for Q4 GDP was 2.3% (Briefing.com consensus 2.3%; prior 2.3%) while the second estimate for the Q4 GDP Deflator was 2.4% (Briefing.com consensus 2.2%; prior 2.2%).
• January Durable Goods Orders were up 3.1% (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%; prior revised to -1.8% from -2.2%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were flat (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior revised to 0.1% from 0.3%).
• January Pending Home Sales declined 4.6% (Briefing.com consensus -0.8%) following an upwardly revised 4.1% decline (from -5.5%) in December.