Morning Notes – Wednesday, March 12, 2025

/ 6 hours ago March 12, 2025

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher. They have been moving higher since 3:00 AM after a sideways move. They are up more than 100 points since the start of the European session.
  • The futures shot up following the CPI report at 8:30 AM.
  • Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. The critical support levels are 5625.25, 5608.25, and 5577.50.
  • The notable economic data due during the day.
    • CPI m/m (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM.
    • Core CPI m/m (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
    • CPI y/y (2.8% vs. 2.9% est.; prev. 3.0%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Weekly: Correction
  • Daily: Correction
  • 120-Min: Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5607.61, 5581.55, and 5541.45.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5636.30, 5658.88, and 5673.95.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5627.00, the high at 7:30 AM, and 5577.00, the low at 3:00 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5575.75, and the index closed at 5572.07 – a spread of about +3.75 points; the futures closed at 5577.00; the fair value is -1.25.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +40.75, Dow by +215 and NASDAQ by +168.75.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed: Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney, and Mumbai closed down; Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore closed up.
  • European markets are mainly higher – Spain is lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mainly lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.285, down -1.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.599%, up +3.8 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.951%, down -14.5 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.334, up from 0.205.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.314, up from 0.260.
  • VIX
    • At 26.02 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 29.56 on March 10; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 7 was a relatively large red candle with almost no upper shadow and a small lower shadow.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D.
    • RSI-9 is below 40.
  • The week was down -184.30 or -3.1%; the 5-week ATR is 193.30.
  • Fourth down week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5807.53; R1=5948.76, 6127.33; S1=5628.96, S2=5487.73; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; At/above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA
  • In Correction
Daily
  • A red spinning top candle below a support level that was broken on Monday. Below the 200-day SMA. The index has broken below the lower bound of a trading range between 6128.00 and 5775.00–the 61.8% extension target around 5550.00 is achieved; the 100% extension target is around 5400.00.
  • The index is just below the lows of October 2024.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed below %D.
    • RSI-9 is below 25 and below the 8-day EMA.
  • Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA.
  • In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down since 12:00 PM on February 19. Bouncing up after breaking below 5500.00 level for the first time since September 11, 2024.
    • RSI-9 has bounced above 50 after making a Bullish Divergence.
    • At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 3:00 PM on Monday between 5651.00 and 5534.00.
    • RSI-21 has risen to above 50.
    • Above EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 4:00 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding 4:00 AM with the price near the upper band.
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly lower on Tuesday, March 11 in mixed volume. Russell 2000 traded higher in higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average also trade in higher volume. The trading was volatile. The market opened flat and then moved down until 1:30 PM before recovering by the close.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed up; the industrial metals closed mainly up; and the soft commodities closed mainly down. The US Treasuries yields were up, and the bonds were down. All S&P sectors closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market logged declines, again. The market has been in a steady downtrend as trade war tensions intensify and growth concerns increase. The former was relevant today after President Trump announced that the US will impose a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, starting Wednesday, instead of the originally proposed 25%.

[…]

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • February NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.7; Prior 102.8
  • January JOLTS – Job Openings 7.740 mln; Prior was revised to 7.508 mln from 7.600 mln
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