Morning Notes – Monday, March 31, 2025

/ 2 days ago March 31, 2025

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower. Moving sideways within a 30-point range around 5570.00 since 5:00 AM.
  • Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break above 5600.00 for a change of sentiment.
  • The notable economic data due during the day:
    • Chicago PMI (45.5 est.; prev. 45.5) at 9:45 AM.
  • Weekly: Correction
  • Daily: Correction
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down
  • 6-Min: Down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5527.59, 5504.65, and 5480.54.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5572.42, 5591.25, and 5619.33.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5600.00, the high at 6:00 PM on Sunday, and 5552.25, the low at 7:30 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5624.50, and the index closed at 5580.94 – a spread of about +43.50 points; the futures closed at 5623.00; the fair value is +1.50.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were down – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -51.25, Dow by -259 and NASDAQ by -244.50.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed down–Mumbai and Singapore were closed.
  • European markets are lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are mainly higher.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.239, down -3.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.626%, up +4.1 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.922%, down -5.8 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.317 up from 0.293.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.387, up from 0.312.
  • VIX
    • At 23.88 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA.
    • Recent high = 29.57 on March 11; low = 17.67 on February 27.
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 28 was a relatively large red Bearish Engulfing candle with no lower shadow and a small upper shadow.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D, and below 10.
    • RSI-9 has fallen below 30.
  • The week was up -86.62 or -1.5%; the 5-week ATR is 214.53.
  • Fourth down week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5646.77; R1=5721.12, 5861.30; S1=5506.59, S2=5432.24; R1/S1/S2 pivot levels were breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; At/above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA
  • In Correction
Daily
  • A relatively large red candle with almost no upper and lower shadow, separating from the previous day and breaking below an upsloping flag. The 61.8% extension target is near 5390.00, and the 100% extension target is around 5150.00.
  • On March 3, the index broke below the lower bound of a trading range between 6128.00 and 5775.00–the 61.8% extension target around 5550.00 is achieved; the 100% extension target is around 5400.00.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D, and near zero.
    • RSI-9 is below 40 and below the 8-day EMA.
  • Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA.
  • In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Broke below an upsloping flag on Friday–the 61.8% extension target is around 5430.00, the 100% extension target is around 5180.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 4780.00.
    • RSI-9 has fallen below 20.
    • Below EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways to down since 6:00 PM on Sunday after opening the week with down gap.
    • RSI-21 has drifted up to around 35 from near 20 at 6:00 PM.
    • At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting lower since 4:15 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band is a little expanded with the price bouncing up from the lower band to the middle band.
  • Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, March 28 in higher volume. The major US index opened lower and then traded lower for the rest of the day. The dollar index and the crude oil futures closed down; the metals – industrial and precious – closed mixed; and the soft commodities closed mixed, too. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All but one S&P sectors – Utilities -closed down.

From Briefing.com

The major US equity indices experienced significant declines today, driven by escalating inflation concerns and deteriorating consumer sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell 2.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite registered a 2.7% loss.

[…]

The 2-yr yield sank nine basis points today to 3.91% and the 10-yr yield settled 11 basis points lower at 4.26%. This leaves the 2-yr yield four basis points lower this week and the 10-yr yield one basis points higher this week.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: -5.1% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -6.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -9.3% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -8.4% YT

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • February Personal Income 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%, February Personal Spending 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%); Prior was revised to -0.3% from -0.2%, February PCE Prices 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%, February PCE Prices – Core 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.3%
  • March Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final 57.0 (Briefing.com consensus 57.9); Prior 57.9
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