Directional Bias for the Day:
S&P Futures are lower. Moving near the lower bound of a descending triangle. Watch for the break below the lower bound at 5619.25.- Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 5663.50, which may change the sentiment.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- Final Manufacturing PMI (49.8 est.; prev. 49.8) at 9:45 AM.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.5 est.; prev. 50.3) at 10:00 AM.
- ISM Manufacturing Prices (64.6 est.; prev. 62.4) at 10:00 AM.
- Construction Spending (0.3% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 10:00 AM.
- JOLTS Job Openings (7.68M est.; prev. 7.74M) at 10:00 AM.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5579.50, 5550.42, and 5515.61.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5585.65, 5609.07, and 5627.56.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 5663.50, the high at 5:45 AM, and 5618.25, the low at 7:30 AM.
Pre-Open
- On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5656.25, and the index closed at 5611.85 – a spread of about +42.25 points; the futures closed at 5653.25; the fair value is +3.00.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were down – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -25.50, Dow by -248 and NASDAQ by -75.50.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mainly up–Mumbai and Singapore were down.
- European markets are higher.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher.
- Precious metals are higher.
- Industrial metals are mixed.
- Soft commodities are mainly lower.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 2-year yield is at 3.895%, down -16.2 basis points.
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.210, down -9.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.577%, down -1.4 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.315 up from 0.249.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.367, up from 0.285.
- VIX
- At 22.98 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA.
- Recent high = 24.80 on March 31; low = 17.67 on February 27.
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mainly higher on Monday, March 31 in higher volume. The NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000 closed down. The major US index gapped down at the open and made the day’s lows in the first half-hour of trading. They then turned around and traded higher for the rest of the day. Most closed their opening gaps. ed lower and then traded lower for the rest of the day. Major indices, except the two Dow averages and the NYSE Composite, broke below their 2025 lows, before bouncing above them.
The dollar index and the energy futures closed up; the precious metals closed lower mixed and the industrial metals higher; the soft commodities were mainly down. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All S&P sectors closed up.
From Briefing.com
The S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%) closed at or near highs after rebounding off early session lows. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) also staged a rebound after trading down as much as 2.7% at its low but still settled slightly below Friday’s close.
[…]The 10-yr yield settled one basis point lower at 4.25% after hitting 4.19% earlier. The 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 3.91% after hitting 3.85%.
[…]- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.3% YTD
- S&P 500: -4.6% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -6.5% YTD
- Russell 2000: -9.8% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -10.4% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- March Chicago PMI 47.6 vs. 45.3 Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 45.0 from 45.5
