A research paper by Ben Jacobsen and Cherry Y. Zhang of Massey University of New Zealand demonstrates that monthly seasonality effect is sample specific. They found that the strategy of ‘Sell in May and Go Away‘ beats the market more that 80% of times over -year horizons. Another aspect of this strategy is that during this time, bonds usually outperform…
The last one of our short listed-bond ETF trade for the summer is triggered by the close of May 12th, 2014. Go long BND – Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) – at or near 81.65, the close on May 12th The favorable period for this trade will end sometime in Oct-Nov. We will send alerts when our proprietary algorithm…
NatGas Trades May 9th closing price of ERX tells us that it is time to close all Natural-Gas / Energy trades that we entered in late January. Previous closes produced good profits – see here, here and here. Exit ERX – Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares ETF – at or around 105.90, the close on May 9th ERX was entered on Jan 24th…
Back on April 25th, we made a case for our “Sell in May” seasonal strategy. Based upon our proprietary entry-exit signal algorithm, the exit signals for broader market ETFs were generated in the week before that post. Since then we were on a lookout for the compendium set of trades using bond ETFs. The closing price…
From Bloomberg: Ever since Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater for the presidency in 1964, yields on 10-year Treasuries have dropped about 40 basis points in the first month when a Democrat wins, and risen 19 after a Republican victory, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Why risk in the rebalanced portfolio is ramping higher? During market pullbacks, financial advisors use a boilerplate response: “Let’s rebalance the portfolio.” Investors have heard that one for years. The recommended allocation varies depending on a client’s age and risk tolerance, but it typically involves shifting funds from stocks to bond holdings. The evidence shows…
Thursday: Stocks Ease So Does Volume Early Thursday morning – New York time – the US futures were heading higher from the decline of Wednesday. YM, the DJIA mini futures, was even threatening to form an inverse head-&-shoulder pattern. However, the US unemployment claims report punctured the optimism and the futures lost their steam. For…
Wednesday’s Recap – Fed To Rescue? Wednesday was the FOMC meeting minutes release day and that kept the markets on tenterhooks for most of the day. The overnight action from Tuesday’s close was stifled by some disappointing news from Japan and Australia along with the apprehension about the FOMC meeting minutes. US futures were under…
Here is what I am reading: Meredith Whitney’s Muni Prediction Gets No Boost From Fed (Bloomberg) Stocks breakout on higher volume (MarketWatch) Who’s Lying: The Rally or the Sell Signals? (Minyanville) $DJIA Going For Seven Straight & A Short Video on Cycles (Stock Trader’s Almanac) Our Largest Ever S&P 500 Chart! (Don’t Ignore This Chart) The…
Stock Trader’s Almanac provides very valuable analyses and interpretations of historical data. It has also developed many trading strategies based upon seasonal patterns in the commodities and equity markets. One such idea is a seasonal long trade in 30-Yr Bond starting in late April and holding for nearly four months. Buying Treasury bonds is a…
You must be logged in to post a comment.