Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
The S&P 500 is trending up since bottoming on October 13, 2022. It has cleared a few critical resistance levels and broken above bullish chart patterns since then. The probability is high that the upswing will go on for some time. Monthly Timeframe Fig 1. tells a good story of the S&P 500. The logarithmic…
“Bank on the trends, and don’t worry about the tremors. Keep your mind on long-term cycles and ignore the sporadic ups and downs …” — J. Paul Getty (as said to him by a successful financier)[1]J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich Secular markets or secular cycles in an asset class are driven by strong…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are sharply lower. Futures declined more than 70 points minutes after the release of the CPI data at 8:30 AM. Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 6038.75 for a bounce, which could be a dead-cat-bounce. The notable economic data due during the day:…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a little changed at 8:45 AM; after the Non-Farm Payroll release; futures are moving within a range since Thursday’s close. Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break above 6112.00 or a break below 6086.50 for clarity. The notable economic data due…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; futures are moving within a range since Wednesday’s close. Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break above 6105.00 or a break below 6086.50 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: Unemployment Claims (219K vs.…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; futures are moving up since 5:00 AM and are up more than 25 points. Odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways to a down move from the pre-open level around 6045.00 day. Watch for a break above 6053.00…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM. Up more than 30 points since 3:45 AM, making a rounding bottom. Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 6035.00 or a break below 5994.00 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: JOLTS…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Futures have been sharply down. Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 5988.75 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: Final Manufacturing PMI (51.2 vs. 50.1 est.; prev. 50.1) at 9:45 AM. ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.3…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Futures have been moving up since 7:15 AM within a trading range. Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break above 6092.00 or a break below 6074.25 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: ECB…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Futures jumped up more than 75 points after the release of the CPI report at 8:30 AM. Odds are for an up day, with a good chance of sideways to down move from the pre-open level around 5970.00. Watch for a break above…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving within a range between 5918.50 and 5874.75 since 4:00 Pm on Monday. Odds are for an up day, with a good chance of sideways move from the pre-open level around 5900.00. Watch for a break above 5918.50 or a…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. They have been moving sideways to down since 8:30 PM on Sunday. Odds are for a down day, and a sideways move from the pre-open level around 5820.00. Watch for a break above 5848.75 and a break below 5810.00 for clarity. The notable…
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