Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
The S&P 500 is trending up since bottoming on October 13, 2022. It has cleared a few critical resistance levels and broken above bullish chart patterns since then. The probability is high that the upswing will go on for some time. Monthly Timeframe Fig 1. tells a good story of the S&P 500. The logarithmic…
“Bank on the trends, and don’t worry about the tremors. Keep your mind on long-term cycles and ignore the sporadic ups and downs …” — J. Paul Getty (as said to him by a successful financier)[1]J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich Secular markets or secular cycles in an asset class are driven by strong…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a little changed at 8:45 AM. Moving sideways since 2:00 PM on Monday around 5910.00 levels. Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 5918.50 or a break below 5904.75 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: Empire…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a bit lower at 9:00 AM. Forming a cup-with-handle pattern. Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break below 5782.75 for a change in sentiments. The notable economic data due during the day: FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM. Weekly: Uptrend Daily:…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving sideways since 5:15 AM within a narrow range around 5765.00. Odds are for a sideways to down day. Watch for a break above 5770.75 or a break below 5742.50 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: Trade Balance (-70.4B…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM. Moving sideways to down since 4:00 PM. Odds are for a sideways to down day. Watch for a break above 5822.50 or a break below 5807.25 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: Final Manufacturing PMI (47.0 est.; prev. 47.0)…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Moving down since 0:15 Am on Friday in steps. Down more than 40 points, Odds are for a down day with a good chance of a sideways to an up move from the pre-market levels around 5780.00. Watch for a break above 5796.75…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving up since 4:00 AM. Up more than 20 points to around 5814.00 level. Odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels. Watch for a break below 5790.75 for a change…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:15 AM. Moving up since 1:30 PM on Wednesday. Up more than 60 points to around 5825.00 level. Odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels. Watch for a break below 5805.00 for…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are little changed at 8:15 AM. Moving up since 2:15 AM within a range. Up more than 15 points. Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break below 5773.50 or a break above 5794.50 for clarity. The major economic data due during the…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM. Moving within a range. Odds are for a sideways day. Watch for a break below 5771.75 or a break above 5793.50 for clarity. The major economic data due during the day: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (5.9% vs. 5.9% est.; prev. 6.5%) at 9:00 AM.…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Up more than 30 points since 3:00 AM. Odds are for a sideways to up day. Watch for a break below 5745.25 or a break above 5781.75 for clarity. The major economic data due during the day: Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.6 est.; prev.…
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