Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
The S&P 500 is trending up since bottoming on October 13, 2022. It has cleared a few critical resistance levels and broken above bullish chart patterns since then. The probability is high that the upswing will go on for some time. Monthly Timeframe Fig 1. tells a good story of the S&P 500. The logarithmic…
“Bank on the trends, and don’t worry about the tremors. Keep your mind on long-term cycles and ignore the sporadic ups and downs …” — J. Paul Getty (as said to him by a successful financier)[1]J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich Secular markets or secular cycles in an asset class are driven by strong…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a little higher. Moving within a range since 9:45 AM on Tuesday between 5689.50 and 5650.75 ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference at 2:30 PM. Odds are for a sideways day until 2:00 PM. The volatility will increase after that. Watch for a break above…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. Breaking below a range between 5724.00 and 5705.00. Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility and a good chance of moving sideways from the pre-open level around 5710.00. The notable economic data due during the day: Building Permits (1.46M vs. 1.45M est.; prev. 1.47M)…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are little changed after rising following the PPI report at 8:30 AM. They were down more than 25 points before the report. Odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility. The critical resistance level is 5609.75, and the critical support level is 5559.25. The notable…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. They have been moving higher since 3:00 AM after a sideways move. They are up more than 100 points since the start of the European session. The futures shot up following the CPI report at 8:30 AM. Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility.…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. They are moving higher after breaking below the NYSE session low in the Asian session. Up more than 90 points from the lows of 5558.00 at 9:00 PM. Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. The critical support levels are 5627.50, 5615.50, and 5584.50.…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. Down more than 60 points since the start of the European session. Odds are for a down day with increased volatility. The critical resistance levels are 5723.25, 5731.50, and 5757.75. No notable economic data is due during the day. Weekly: Correction Daily: Correction 120-Min: Down 30-Min:…
Directional Bias for the Day: 9:10 AM Update. The futures have been declining after jumping more than 50 points in the first minute following the non-farm payroll report. They are down more than 60 points since the initial jump. The outlook for the day has turned decidedly negative. S&P Futures jumped up after the Non-Farm…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower but have been bouncing off a low of 5769.25 at 8:30 AM. Odds are for a down day with increased volatility and a good chance of an up move from the pre-open lows. The critical resistance levels are 5797.75, 5813.50, and 5830.75. The notable economic data…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a little higher. They have been declining since 4:45 AM–down more than 50 points from the high of 5845.00. Broke below a trading range at 6:45 AM–the 61.8% extension target around 5788.00 is achieved. The 100% extension target is around 5776.00, and the 161.8% extension target is…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. They have been declining since 3:45 AM–down more than 60 points from the high of 5878.00. Odds are for a down day with increased volatility. Watch for a break above 5835.75 and a break above 5847.00. No notable economic data is due during the day. Weekly:…
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