Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
The S&P 500 is trending up since bottoming on October 13, 2022. It has cleared a few critical resistance levels and broken above bullish chart patterns since then. The probability is high that the upswing will go on for some time. Monthly Timeframe Fig 1. tells a good story of the S&P 500. The logarithmic…
“Bank on the trends, and don’t worry about the tremors. Keep your mind on long-term cycles and ignore the sporadic ups and downs …” — J. Paul Getty (as said to him by a successful financier)[1]J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich Secular markets or secular cycles in an asset class are driven by strong…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving sideways to up since 1:45 PM on Monday. Odds are for an up day with a good chance of sideways move from the pre-open level around 6030.00. Watch for a break below 6004.00 for a change of sentiments. The…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. They have been trending down since 9:30 AM on Thursday and have declined more than 140 points. However, they have been bouncing since 7:00 AM, gaining more than 40 points. Odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways to…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been drifting sideways to higher since 4:00 PM on Wednesday and are up more than 80 points from the lows. Odds are for an up day with a good chance of sideways to a down move from the pre-open level around…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:15 AM. They have been drifting higher since 6:00 PM on Tuesday and are up more than 30 points. Odds are for an up day. Watch for a break above 6055.75 for a change in sentiments. The notable economic data due during the day: Building…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM. They have been moving down since 1:30 PM on Monday and are down more than 30 points. Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 6068.00 for a change in sentiments. The notable economic data due during the day: Retail…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving up since 4:15 PM on Friday and are up more than 30 points. Odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels around 6075.00. Watch for a break…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving up since 4:15 PM on Thursday and are up more than 20 points after gaining more than 30 points. Odds are for a sideways to a down day from the pre-open levels around 6080.00. Watch for a break above…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. They have been trading between 6086.00 and 6071.75. Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 6086.00 and 6098.50 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: ECB Main Financing Rate (3.15% vs. 3.15% est.;…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM following the release of CPI data. They have broken above a trading range between 6052.00 and 6039.75. Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break below 6039.75 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: CPI…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a little changed at 8:45 AM. The futures have been moving sideways between 6071.25 and 6057.50. Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 6071.25 and 6083.25 for clarity. The notable economic data due during the day: Revised Nonfarm Productivity (2.2%…
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