The week following the triple-witching Friday in June has been historically weak. There is not a single up week following the triple-witching in June since 1998. It tends to be down in flat period and dramatically so during bear markets. Our entry/exit algorithm has generated the short-signal for technology and small-caps. For technology, you can go either…
Economic Data Last night, Japan Trade Balance came at -0.86T, better than the forecast of -1.01T; USD/JPY is making a tight coil – symmetrical triangle – and could break anyway, though possibility of going higher is still good. Also last night, New Zealand Current Account came in line at 1.41B. The Kiwi is knocking on a…
EUR/CHF is currently a neutered trade as the floor of 1.2000 put in by SNB is still in effect. The data coming from Euro Zone marginally affects it. The Swiss economy is not as gung-ho as it was some time back, which means the data from Switzerland will also not impact it for some time. So the pair is left to…
Morning Data: UK data disappoints CPI y/y @ 1.5% versus 1.7% expected Core CPI y/y @ 1.6% vs. 1.7% expected PPI Input m/m @ -0.9% vs. 0.1% expected PPI Output m/m @ -0.1% vs. 0.1% expected RPI y/y @ 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected HPI y/y is better @ 9.9% vs. 9.1% CPI bad for currency and HPI good…
June and summer are historically weak months for the stock market when the bears generally come out of hibernation. Some days – specifically the days surrounding the Triple-Witching Fridays – have somewhat more predictability that others. On Monday before the option expiration Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Averages have shown a tendency to weaken. Stock Trader’s Almanac…
Expiration of options and futures contracts increases the volatility leading to higher than normal trading volume. The volatility and volume are higher on the triple-witching days, which happen on the third Friday of the last month of a quarter. There are some distinct patterns prior to, during and following the triple-witching days. Patterns in June are even more predictable.…
Geopolitical, economic and technical factors finally combined to drag down the S&P 500. It closed down for the first time in four-weeks. As the saying goes, one week does not make a trend, the S&P 500 is till in a nice uptrend on the weekly chart. It is a bit overextended by stretching above the upper-channel…
Kids are wonderful. My little girl usually takes me to her favorite song – by Thomas, The Little Engine That Could. Great for a trader to listen and watch from time to time. Never, Never Give Up If you climb the highest mountain, Cross the river deep, Maybe you’ll find it’s never as easy As it first…
So far the, in June the currency market has seen quite a few high-magnitude events. First was the ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate to -0.1% from 0.0% on June 5th to counter the deflationary pressures in Euro Zone. No major central bank ever had a negative rate. ECB also reduced the Minimum Bid Rate to…
Morning Read Be Wrong Like Ray Dalio Carney hints at imminent interest rate rises China Industrial Output Climbs Matching Forecasts Dark Pools Take Larger Share of Trades Is this the perfect investment portfolio? Morning Charts 6:00 AM – S&P 500 Back Below Resistance & Bonds Bounce Off Support – like Dec ’13, Mark ’14 and April ’14…
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