Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P 500 future is edging lower and odds are high for a down or sideways day
• On 2-hour chart, S&P future is in a uptrend but is at the trend-line; it is still making higher highs and higher lows;
• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2186.22, 2182.28, and 2178.49
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2193.81, 2197.74 and 2201.68
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside; at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 future was down by -3.25, Dow was down by -33 and NASDAQ was down by -6.50

Before NYSE Session Open

Major US indices traded higher on Monday and made new all-time highs. At NYSE open S&P 500 futures were +4.75 from previous close at 4:00 PM on Friday. By 11:00 AM, the index had risen to new high of 2193.81 and stayed there till the last hour when it declined to close at 2190.15, above +6.10 from previous close.

• S&P 500 gained +6.10 or +0.3% to close at 2190.15;
• Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by +59.58 or +0.3% to 18636.05;
• NASDAQ Composite gained +29.13 or +0.6% to close at 5262.02;
• Russell 2000 was up +12.04 or +1.0% to 1241.86;.

Asian Session

Asian bourses were mostly down on Tuesday.

• Shanghai Composite lost -15.158 or -0.49% to close at 3110.4; it is still above the recently broken resistance level, which has become support
• Hang Seng closed down by -21.67 or -0.09% to 22910.84; it made a new high since October 2015; a break below 22765.23 on next trading day will form a 3-day evening star pattern
• Nikkei 225 closed down by -273.05 or -1.62% to 16596.51; it is turning back at the down-sloping 39-week EMA and from the resistance of 16938.96 – the July 21st high;
• Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 was down by -8.00 or -0.14% to 5532.00;
• Sensex was down -87.69 or -0.31% to close at 28064.61; it is near the upper limit of a rectangle trading range;
• South Korea’s KOSPI was down -2.71 or -0.13% to close at 2047.76;

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mostly down at 8:30 AM.

• DAX is down by -88.74 or -0.83%; the daily trend is still up though evening star, a 3-day chart pattern, is emerging
• FTSE-100 is down by -24.37 or -0.36% to 6916.62; it is also on a uptrend on daily and weekly timeframes; support is at 6812.73 and the next resistance is at 7122.74
• CAC-40 is down by -28.81 or -0.64% to 4469.05; on Monday, it broke above the downtrend line on weekly timeframe
• Spanish IBEX is down by -70.70 or -0.81% to 8649.90; it is at the upper-limit of the post-Brexit day gap-down which also coincides with the resistance created by the down-sloping 39-week EMA
• Italian FTSE MIB is down by -112.22 or -0.66% to 16885.61;
• Swiss SMI-SWX is down by -69.64 or -0.84% to 8235.64;
• STOXX-600 is down by -2.09 or -0.60% to 343.96

Currencies

• U.S. Dollar index is down by -0.724 to 94.890; on daily timeframe it made lower high on August 5th and a lower low on August 16th
• EUR/USD is up by +87.7 pips to 1.12715; it is a mirror opposite of dollar index on daily charts
• GBP/USD is up by +74.0 pips to 1.2955; on Monday, it closed at the lowest level since 1985
• USD/JPY is down by -121.1 pips (Yen is stronger) to 100.054;

Commodities

• WTI Crude is down by -0.19 or -0.42% to 45.55; earlier it made a high of 46.21; it is on a uptrend on daily charts since August 3rd and is facing resistance at 46.09;
• Natural Gas is up by +0.025 or +0.97% to 2.615;
• Gold is up by +5.2 or +0.39% to 1352.70;
• Silver is up by +0.028 or +0.14% to 19.875;
• Copper is up by +0.0150 or +0.70% to 2.1665;

Yields

• U.S. Treasury yields are down for the day so far
• 30-year yield is down by -1.1 basis points to 2.265% and 10-year is down by -0.7 basis points to 1.546%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3