Odds are for a sideways to down day; watch for break above 2366.75 and below 2356.00 for change of fortunes
On Friday, S&P 500 made a near gravestone doji candlestick pattern; a break below its low will be critical
Key economic data: ISM Manufacturing (estimate is 57.2) and construction spending (est. 1.00%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly higher – Shanghai was closed
European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K. and Switzerland are up; France, Spain, Italy and STOXX 600 are down
Dollar index and EUR/USD are higher; USD/JPY and GBP/USD are lower;
Commodities are mostly down – crude oil is up and NatGas is unchanged; gold, silver and copper are lower
10-yrs yield is at 2.386% down from March 31 close of 2.396%; 30-years is at 3.020% up from 3.018%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2362.62, 2357.27 and 2352.14
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2370.42, 2381.93 and 2385.71
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2366.75, high of 1:30 PM on March 31 and break below 2356.00, the low of 8:00 PM on April 2
Pre-Open
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is almost unchanged – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25, Dow is up by +12.00, NASDAQ is up by +5.00
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2358.50 and the index closed at 2362.72 – a spread of about +4.25 points; futures closed at 2359.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 24, was a large green candle that made a piercing pattern closing higher than the mid-point of previous week’s bearish engulfing, which had broken below the four-week lows
An up week – eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Daily
A near gravestone doji with very small upper shadow and no lower shadow
Break below Thursday’s low of 2358.58 will be critical
Broke a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on March 21; broke below an uptrend line since November lows
Uptrend under pressure; break above March 16 high of 2388.10 is critical for uptrend
Broke below a descending triangle on March 21; target near 2308.00 still active; rise above 2381.93 will nullify it
Move above an up-sloping channel since December 27 still relevant
Above 100-day, 200-day and 50-day SMA/EMA; above 20-day EMA
Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Facing resistance – prior support – at 2365.50; made two touches to 2366.75 – 10:00 AM on march 30 and 12:00 PM on March 31 – a break below 2356.00 will complete the pattern with 100% extension target near 2346.00
Broke above a double top – at 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM on March 29 – On march 30 but did not reached 61.8% of the target;
Uptrend broken; sequence of lower highs and lower lows with one exception
Above rising 50-bar EMA; at flattening 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Drifting sideways since Friday close – bounded between 2356.00 and 2363.25
Down trend since 3:30 AM on March 16; sequence of lower lows and lower highs broken; within this downtrend – an uptrend from the lows of 2318.00 at 9:30 AM on March 27
At flattening 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday March 31. Russell 2000 was the only one to advance. For the week major indices were up.
