Odds are for an up to sideways move – watch for break below 2535.75 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (260K vs. 266K est.) at 8:30 AM
Trade Balance (-42.4B vs. -42.7B est.) at 8:30 AM
Factory Orders (est. 1.0%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were either closed or down – Tokyo was up; Sydney and Mumbai were down; Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul were closed
European markets are mixed – U.K., France and Spain are up; Germany, Italy, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/JPY
Commodities are mostly down
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Cotton
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
10-yrs yield closed at 2.330% down from October 3 close of 2.334%; 30-years closed at 2.877% up from 2.874%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2535.37, 2531.51 and 2525.84
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2540.53, 2545.42 and 2550.31
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2538.00, the high of 12:00 PM on October 4 and break below 2534.50, the low of 1:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2535.50 and the index closed at 2537.74 – a spread of about 2.25 points; futures closed at 2536.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00; Dow by +19.00; and NASDAQ by +22.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A green bullish engulfing candle with small lower shadow and no upper shadow
Last week’s pivot point 2508.94; R1=2529.86, R2=2540.35; S1=2498.45, S2=2477535; R1/R2 and S1/S2 were breached; support levels breached after five weeks
An up week – fourth in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
A small green candle with small upper and lower shadows
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2536.69; R1=2541.58, R2=2545.42; S1=2532.85, S2=2527.96; R1/R2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Pre-open price action similar to that on October 4 and 3; price did not make a high after the NYSE session but it rising since 1:00 AM
Broke above a horizontal channel – high 2506.00 and low 2487.50; 100% extension target near 2524.50 is achieved; 161.8% extension target, near 2536.00, is also achieved; 200% extension is near 2544.00 and 261.8% extension is near 2555.00
Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Drifting sideways since 3:00 PM on October 4
A symmetrical triangle or a pennant is emerging; the triangle target are near 2540.75 and 2545.00; pennant targets are near 2544.00 and 2549.25
Up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at 11:00 AM on September 25;
At/above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday October 4. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 were down. The day’s range was small and most made doji candle. DJT mad a Dark Cloud Cover pattern
