S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 6:30 PM on January 14; most of the gains occurred at the start of week’s trading
Odds are for an up day but sideways to down from current levels – watch for break below 2796.00 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Empire State Manufacturing Index (17.7 vs. 18.5 est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly up – Sydney and Mumbai were down
European markets are mostly up – U.K. and Switzerland are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Platinum
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.535% down from January 12 close of 2.552%;
30-years is at 2.837% down from 2.853%
2-years yield is at 1.998% down from 2.002%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.537 down from 0.550
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2778.25, 2761.28 and 2752.78
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2792.85, 2799.45 and 2811.06
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2803.50, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 2797.25, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2786.50 and the index closed at 2786.24 – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 2788.75 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.25; Dow up by +200.00; and NASDAQ up by +35.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 12 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2770.05; R1=2804.04, R2=2821.84; S1=2752.25, S2=2718.26; R1/R2 were breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A relatively large green candle with almost no lower and upper shadows and gap with previous one
RSI-14 divergence is nullified as RSI made a new high
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2781.24; R1=2792.45, R2=2799.45; S1=2774.64; S2=2763.03; R1/R2/R3 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; regaining that trend after drifting down from 12:00 PM on January 9 to 4:00 AM January 10; bounced off EMA10 of EMA501t 8:00 AM on January 10
RSI-9 is flashing a divergence potential – 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; RSI is below 80 now
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving up since 5:30 AM on January 10; broke above a resistance of 2796.00 at 3:00 AM; now coming back to broken level
RSI-14 has mostly stayed above 50 since 10:30 AM on January 10; since 9:30 AM on January 12, it has toggled around 65 with one very brief dip below 50 and two dips above 75
At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 10:45 PM on January 14
The band mostly stayed contracted till European session o January 16; the BW was mostly below 0.20; the band expanded mildly from 4:00 AM to 8:00 AM before contracting a bit
MFI-14 has been declining since 3:15 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K declined to 0 at 7:00 AM; now rising and above 50
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Friday January 12. Market gapped at the open and continued to climb higher. Most indices closed near the highs. Russell 2000 closed near the middle of day’s range.
For the week, market made a large green candle and closed near the highs. Most S&P sectors also advance for the week. Utility and Real Estate closed down for the week.
