S&P Futures are down; moving sideways since 6:30 PM on Sunday with one spike up at around 7:30 AM
Futures gapped down at the week’s open and the gap, which hasn’t filled yet, is acting as a resistance
Odds are a sideways day, depending upon the progress, or lack thereof, government shutdown talks – watch for break above 28011.75 and below 2805.75 for change of fortunes
No Key economic data due
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney and Seoul were down
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Palladium
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.646% up from January 19 close of 2.637%;
30-years is at 2.915% up from 2.912%
2-years yield is at 2.074% up from 2.053%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.571 down from 0.584
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2798.08, 2792.56 and 2768.64
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2814.39, 2818.49 and 2826.64
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2811.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2805.75, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2812.50 and the index closed at 2810.30 – a spread of about +2.25 points; futures closed at 2811.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.00; Dow by -65.00; and NASDAQ by -5.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-To-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 19 was a small body green candle, a hammer with almost no upper shadow but large lower shadow; the weekly change was a healthy +0.9% but lower than previous two weeks’ +.26% and +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2796.42; R1=2824.021 R2=2838.11; S1=2782.52, S2=2754.73; R1 was breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A green candle at the high with small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Trying to sustain the break above an ascending triangle with futures hovering around the upper bound of 2809.00 since 8:00 PM on January 20
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; decline from 8:00 AM on January 16 bounced off a support at the EMA50 twice on January 16 and 17
RSI-9 diverged – 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; RSI fluctuating between 40 and 65 since 10:00 PM on January 16
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
At/above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Bounced off an uptrend line from the lows at 10:30 PM on January 18; retreating back to it before the open
Emerging ABCD – bullish; Target AB=CD at 2820.75; 161.8% extension target near 2838.50
RSI-14 mostly staying above 40 since 6:30 PM on January 16 indicating upward bias since then; price moved up from 2779.00 till 3:00 PM on January 17 to 2809.50; since then it hasn’t gained much
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
8:30 AM was bearish engulfing candle that brought prece back to the uptrend line
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloped sideways from 6:00 PM on Sunday
The band contracted from 11:00 PM to 6:00 AM; it expanded and the price moved along upper band too 8:30 AM ; price at the mid point before open
MFI-14 mostly above 50 and rising since 00:30 AM from 31.37
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K dropped to below 0 from above 80 at 8:45 AM; it is staying below it before open
Emerging bearish ABCD pattern
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Friday January 19. Most made all time highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 did not make another high.
For the week, major indices were positive. The weekly candle was small real body but large lower shadow and small upper shadow. A break above the highs will continue the uptrend where as break below the lows at paus it for sometime. For the week, only Utility and Real Estate sectors were down.
