Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher
- A descending triangle broke to the upside on 161.8% extension near 2850.25 is achieved
- Odds are an up day – watch for break below 2843.00 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- Existing Home Sales (est. 5.72M) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo was down
- European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland is up
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
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- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cocoa
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.650% up from January 23 close of 2.624%;
- 30-years is at 2.937% up from 2.902%
- 2-years yield is at 2.068% up from 2.060%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.582 up from 0.564
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2834.99, 2821.22 and 2815.90
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2844.05, 2848.72 and 2855.70
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2850.25, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2843.00, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2840.50 and the index closed at 2839.13 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2839.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.00; Dow up by +107.00; and NASDAQ up by +23.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Side-to-Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
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Weekly: |
- The week ending on January 19 was a small body green candle, a hammer with almost no upper shadow but large lower shadow; the weekly change was a healthy +0.9% but lower than previous two weeks’ +.26% and +1.6%
- Last week’s pivot point 2796.42; R1=2824.021 R2=2838.11; S1=2782.52, S2=2754.73; R1 was breached;
- An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
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Daily
|
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Small green body with small upper and lower shadows following a large green candle
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke above an Ascending triangle at 8:00 AM on January 22; Low=2769.25, High=2808.50; 100% extension near 2847.75 is achieved in early morning; 161.8% extension target is near 2872.00
- RSI-9 divergence could still happen; at 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; at 2:00 AM on January 23, the price made 2842.00 and RSI was at 90.04; RSI has declined to 71.02 in steps but price is at new high
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
- Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- A symmetrical triangle formed on January 23 and broke to the upside on January 24; High=2844.75 and Low=2828.75; 61.8% extension target is near 2851.75 and 100% extension target is near 2858.00
- Last pattern bullish ABCD or symmetric triangle broke to the upside on January 22; 161.8% extension target near 2838.50 is achieved; 261.8% extension target is near 2867.50
- RSI-14 rising since 6:00 AM on January 23; RSI above an uptrend line
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping up since 9:15 AM on January 22 after a brief sideways move during Asian session
- The band contracted during most of the Asian session; then expanded to the upside; then narrowed sideways; and is again expanding to the upside with price hugging the upper band
- MFI-14 is staying above 50 after couple of bounces off its since midnight
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): Trending dup after %K made 0 at 6:45 AM; above 90 after a knee to the upside
- Made an evening star between 8:15 and 9:00 AM; 9:154 AM could be a bullish engulfing
- Bias: Up
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Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday January 23. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average declined. Indices traded within a narrow range. DJIA volume increased by +0.5%
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industrials
- Finance
- Utility
- Technology
- Real Estate
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- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Heath Care
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