A symmetrical triangle is forming on 30-minute charts with price near the upper bound
Odds are an up day, but sideways to down from pre-open levels – watch for break above 2853.50 and below 2844.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Advanced GDP (2.6% vs. 3.0% est.) at 8:30 AM
Advanced GDP Price Index (2.4% vs. 2.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Core Durable Goods Orders (0.6% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
Durable Goods Orders (2.9% vs. 0.9% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo was down; Mumbai and Sydney were closed
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.640% up from January 25 close of 2.621%;
30-years is at 2.895% up from 2.880%
2-years yield is at 2.112% up from 2.088%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.528 down from 0.533
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2830.94, 2824.81 and 2815.90
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2848.56, 2852.97 and 2855.60
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2852.25, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2844.25, the low of 2:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2839.75 and the index closed at 2897.25 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2841.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.75; Dow by +47.00; and NASDAQ by +16.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side-Up
6-Min: Side-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 19 was a small body green candle, a hammer with almost no upper shadow but large lower shadow; the weekly change was a healthy +0.9% but lower than previous two weeks’ +.26% and +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2796.42; R1=2824.021 R2=2838.11; S1=2782.52, S2=2754.73; R1 was breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
Confirmed Uptrend
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke above an Ascending triangle at 8:00 AM on January 22; Low=2769.25, High=2808.50; 100% extension near 2847.75 is achieved in early morning; 161.8% extension target is near 2872.00
RSI-9 divergence could still happen; at 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; at 2:00 AM on January 23, the price made 2842.00 and RSI was at 90.04;
RSI approaching a down trend line; break above would be bullish for price to follow
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
Above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
A symmetrical triangle forming – first high of 2855.50 on January 24 and first low of 2825.50 on January 24
Last pattern bullish ABCD or symmetric triangle broke to the upside on January 22; 161.8% extension target near 2838.50 is achieved; 261.8% extension target is near 2867.50
RSI-14 staying above 50 since 4:00 Pm on January 25
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping sideways, mostly, since 10:00 AM on January 22
The band contracted during the Asian session; expansion since 5:00 AM started to peter out by 7:00 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K declined to 25 at 7:30 AM from 100 at 6:45 AM
Bias: Side-Up
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday January 25. NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Transportation Average were down. Dow Jones Industrial Average made all time high but its volume was 22% lower than previous day. Volume was down for most indices.
