Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower- Bouncing off the lows and forming a down-sloping flag
- Broke above a horizontal channel on 6-minute at 6:30 AM; the 161.8% extension target is near 2691.00
- Broke above a symmetrical triangle on 6-minute chart; 100% extension target near 2688.00 is achieved
- Odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for break below 2660.50 for a change of fortunes
- No Key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo and Sydney were up
- European markets are up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Copper
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cocoa
|
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.768% on February 6 down from February 5 close of 2.794%;
- 30-years closed at 3.044% down from 3.067%
- 2-years yield is at 2.101% down from 2.109%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.659 down from 0.762
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2674.07, 2656.44 and 2627.57
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2701.04, 2732.06 and 2763.39
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2687.50, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2660.50, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2694.75 and the index closed at 2695.14 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2694.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -10.25; Dow by -87.00; and NASDAQ by -20.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Dn-Side
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 2 was a bearish engulfing candle, with a very large decline, -3.9%
- Last week’s pivot point 2797.57 R1=2835.18 R2=2908.22; S1=2724.53, S2=2686.92; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
- A down week; first in last five weeks and second in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
|
Daily
|
- Uptrend under pressure
- A piercing candle following a very large red candle; a bounce is possible though not yet out of the woods
- The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from October 2016 lows is near 2570.00 and the index low on Monday was 2593.07
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Below 50-day EMA but above 100-day SMA
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bouncing off a low below 2600.00 near the lows reached on November 23, 2017; reached near the 50% at 2703.00 retracement of the decline from the highs; the 61.8% retracement is near 2745.00
- RSI-9 rising from 3.92 and is above 50 but below 65
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
- At (from below) 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Dn-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Forming a down-sloping flag; already broke above two down-sloping flags the current one is more shallow; break above 270 0.00 will open the path to at least 2750.00
- RSI-14 is within 65 and 50 since 9:00 AM on February 6
- Above 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Bounce
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:30 PM on Tuesday
- The band is contracting since Asian session
- RSI is between 65 and 40 since 00:15 on February 6
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K above 80 after reaching 7.69 at 5:45 AM; is turning down below 80
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday February 6 following on of the largest declines on Monday. Most also made a piercing candlestick pattern. The real body for some, like for Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite, did not come up to the mid-point of Monday’s real body. Volatility was very high and so was the intra-day range. The indices also moved into the positive and negative territories may times.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Telecom
|
- Utility
- Real Estate
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday February 6 following on of the largest declines on Monday. Most also made a piercing candlestick pattern. The real body for some, like for Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite, did not come up to the mid-point of Monday’s real body. Volatility was very high and so was the intra-day range. The indices also moved into the positive and negative territories may times.
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