Bouncing off the lows and forming a down-sloping flag
Broke above a horizontal channel on 6-minute at 6:30 AM; the 161.8% extension target is near 2691.00
Broke above a symmetrical triangle on 6-minute chart; 100% extension target near 2688.00 is achieved
Odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for break below 2660.50 for a change of fortunes
No Key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo and Sydney were up
European markets are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Cocoa
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 2.768% on February 6 down from February 5 close of 2.794%;
30-years closed at 3.044% down from 3.067%
2-years yield is at 2.101% down from 2.109%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.659 down from 0.762
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2674.07, 2656.44 and 2627.57
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2701.04, 2732.06 and 2763.39
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2687.50, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2660.50, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2694.75 and the index closed at 2695.14 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2694.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -10.25; Dow by -87.00; and NASDAQ by -20.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Dn-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Up-Side
6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on February 2 was a bearish engulfing candle, with a very large decline, -3.9%
Last week’s pivot point 2797.57 R1=2835.18 R2=2908.22; S1=2724.53, S2=2686.92; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
A down week; first in last five weeks and second in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
Uptrend under pressure
A piercing candle following a very large red candle; a bounce is possible though not yet out of the woods
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from October 2016 lows is near 2570.00 and the index low on Monday was 2593.07
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Below 50-day EMA but above 100-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Bouncing off a low below 2600.00 near the lows reached on November 23, 2017; reached near the 50% at 2703.00 retracement of the decline from the highs; the 61.8% retracement is near 2745.00
RSI-9 rising from 3.92 and is above 50 but below 65
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
At (from below) 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Dn-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Forming a down-sloping flag; already broke above two down-sloping flags the current one is more shallow; break above 270 0.00 will open the path to at least 2750.00
RSI-14 is within 65 and 50 since 9:00 AM on February 6
Above 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Bounce
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:30 PM on Tuesday
The band is contracting since Asian session
RSI is between 65 and 40 since 00:15 on February 6
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K above 80 after reaching 7.69 at 5:45 AM; is turning down below 80
Bias: Up-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday February 6 following on of the largest declines on Monday. Most also made a piercing candlestick pattern. The real body for some, like for Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite, did not come up to the mid-point of Monday’s real body. Volatility was very high and so was the intra-day range. The indices also moved into the positive and negative territories may times.
