Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher from previous close but not much from NYSE session close
- An up-sloping flag is emerging on 6-minute chart; a break below 2657.00 will be quite bearish
- Odds are for a sideways days with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2686.00 and break below 2657.00 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- Unemployment Claims (221K vs. 232K est.) at 8:30 AM
- Mortgage Delinquencies (est. 4.88%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly up – Shanghai was down
- European markets are down
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
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- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.875%, up from February 7 close of 2.844%;
- 30-years closed at 3.162%, up from 3.117%
- 2-years yield is at 2.126%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.749 up from 0.718
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2674.07, 2656.44 and 2627.57
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2701.04, 2732.06 and 2763.39
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2686.50, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2657.00, the low of 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2679.00 and the index closed at 2681.66 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2668.25 for the day; the fair value is +10.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.75; Dow by +107.00; and NASDAQ by +55.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Dn-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
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Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 2 was a bearish engulfing candle, with a very large decline, -3.9%
- Last week’s pivot point 2797.57 R1=2835.18 R2=2908.22; S1=2724.53, S2=2686.92; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
- A down week; first in last five weeks and second in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
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Daily
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- Uptrend under pressure
- A shooting star candle; break below 2681.33 will be bearish
- The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from October 2016 lows is near 2570.00 and the index low on Monday was 2593.07
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Below 50-day EMA but above 100-day SMA
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bounce from the low of 2529.00 hit the resistance at EMA10 of EMA50 at 2726.75; the decline from there took it to the 38.2% retracement of the bounce;
- The 61.8% retracement of the big decline on February 2 and February 5 is near 2745.00
- RSI-9 rising from 3.92 and is above 50 but below 65
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
- At 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Dn-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Irregular H&S pattern emerging; break below 2645.00 will complete the pattern and break above 2700.00 will nullify it
- RSI-14 is within 65 and 50 since 9:00 AM on February 6
- Above 50-bar EMA which is above 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:30 PM on February 6
- The band is contracting since Asian session
- RSI is between 65 and 40 most of the time since 00:15 on February 6
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a bullish divergence below 20 at 6:30 AM and is about to make a bearish divergence above 80
- Bias: Side
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday February 7. Indices gave a large intraday gain just before the close. Most also made a shooting star candlestick pattern. A break below Wednesday’s low will be bearish. The volume was lower than on Tuesday.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
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- Industrials
- Finance
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