S&P Futures are higher from previous close but not much from NYSE session close
An up-sloping flag is emerging on 6-minute chart; a break below 2657.00 will be quite bearish
Odds are for a sideways days with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2686.00 and break below 2657.00 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (221K vs. 232K est.) at 8:30 AM
Mortgage Delinquencies (est. 4.88%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly up – Shanghai was down
European markets are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
Dollar index
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.875%, up from February 7 close of 2.844%;
30-years closed at 3.162%, up from 3.117%
2-years yield is at 2.126%, unchanged
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.749 up from 0.718
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2674.07, 2656.44 and 2627.57
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2701.04, 2732.06 and 2763.39
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2686.50, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2657.00, the low of 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2679.00 and the index closed at 2681.66 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2668.25 for the day; the fair value is +10.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.75; Dow by +107.00; and NASDAQ by +55.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Dn-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on February 2 was a bearish engulfing candle, with a very large decline, -3.9%
Last week’s pivot point 2797.57 R1=2835.18 R2=2908.22; S1=2724.53, S2=2686.92; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
A down week; first in last five weeks and second in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
Uptrend under pressure
A shooting star candle; break below 2681.33 will be bearish
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from October 2016 lows is near 2570.00 and the index low on Monday was 2593.07
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Below 50-day EMA but above 100-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Bounce from the low of 2529.00 hit the resistance at EMA10 of EMA50 at 2726.75; the decline from there took it to the 38.2% retracement of the bounce;
The 61.8% retracement of the big decline on February 2 and February 5 is near 2745.00
RSI-9 rising from 3.92 and is above 50 but below 65
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
At 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Dn-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Irregular H&S pattern emerging; break below 2645.00 will complete the pattern and break above 2700.00 will nullify it
RSI-14 is within 65 and 50 since 9:00 AM on February 6
Above 50-bar EMA which is above 20-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:30 PM on February 6
The band is contracting since Asian session
RSI is between 65 and 40 most of the time since 00:15 on February 6
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a bullish divergence below 20 at 6:30 AM and is about to make a bearish divergence above 80
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday February 7. Indices gave a large intraday gain just before the close. Most also made a shooting star candlestick pattern. A break below Wednesday’s low will be bearish. The volume was lower than on Tuesday.
