Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 9:00 AM on February 14
- Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2704.00 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- PPI (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.) and Core PPI (0.4% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Empire State Manufacturing Index (13.1 vs. 17.7 est.) at 8:30 AM
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (25.8 vs. 21.5 est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (230K vs. 229K est.) at 8:30 AM
- Capacity Utilization ( 77.5% vs. 78.0% est.) at 9:15 AM
- Industrial Production (-0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 9:15 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were up – Shanghai and Seoul were closed
- European markets are up
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Cotton (unch.)
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.911%, down from February 14 close of 2.913%;
- 30-years is at 3.155%, down from 3.177%
- 2-years yield is at 2.193%, up from 2.168%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.718 down from 0.745
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2648.87, 2637.08 and 2622.45
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2727.67 2738.11 and 2763.39
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2719.50, the high of 4:30 AM and break below 2704.00, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2698.75 and the index closed at 2698.63 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2697.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +18.00; Dow by +208.00; and NASDAQ by +55.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 9 was a large red bodies candle with -5.2% decline following -3.9% decline with a bearish engulfing candle
- Last week’s pivot point=2638.54, R1=2744.40, R2=2869.24; S1=2513.70, S2=2407.84; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
- A down week; second in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- Another green body with almost no upper and lower shadows; closed above the large red body of February 8; nearing the resistance of 2727.67, the high reached on February 7 bounce
- The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June 2016 lows is near 2534.86 and the index low on Friday 2532.69
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA but above 200-day SMA
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bounced off the lows of 2530.25 at 12:00 PM on February 9, testing the low of 2529.00 on February 5; broke above the resistance of EMA10 of EMA50 at 2726.75; nearing a resistance high
- RSI-9 in an uptrend since 2:00 PM on February 8; staying above 40 since 2:00 Pm on February 9; around 75 since 2:00 PM on February 14
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
- Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Above an uptrend line since 1:30 PM on February 9
- Potential double bottom or a horizontal channel emerging – two lows of 2529.00 at 11:30 PM on February 5 and 2530.25 at 1:30 PM on February 9 with an intermediate high of 2726.75 at 11:00 AM on February 7; nearing the upper limit
- RSI is mostly above 50 since 10:00 AM on February 14; coming down from above 75 reached during European session
- At 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving upward since 1:30 PM on February 14
- The band contracted for sometime during Asian session; again expanding since 3:00 AM
- 7:15 PM on February 13; sudden expansion following CPI news; price hugging the lower band
- RSI mostly moved alone 65 line from 12:45 PM on February 14 to 5:45 AM; it has come off it a bit and is bouncing off above 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned up from 4.44 at 7:30 AM and is now nearing 80
- Bias: Up
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday February 14. The volume was higher than the previous day. Most indices have risen above the big decline on February 8.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Telecom
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- Consumer Staples
- Utility
- Real Estate
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