S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 12:30 AM on February 16
Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2731.50 for a change of fortunes
No Key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly down – Shanghai was closed
European markets are mostly up – U.K. is down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Sugar
Cotton
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.9080%, up from February 16 close of 2.877%;
30-years is at 3.160%, up from 3.136%
2-years yield is at 2.223%, up from 2.189%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.681 down from 0.702
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2726.97, 2689.82 and 2648.87
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2754.42.67, 2763.00 and 2808.92
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2731.50, the high of 2:00 AM and break below 2709.00, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2732.50 and the index closed at 2732.22 – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 2735.00 for the day; the fair value is -2.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -17.75; Dow by -199.00; and NASDAQ by -39.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Down-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side-Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on February 16 was a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance following -5.2% decline previous week
Last week’s pivot point=2703.03, R1=2783.61, R2=2835.00; S1=2651.64, S2=2571.06; R1 was breached;
An up week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
An almost shooting star candle just above 20-day EMA and near 61.8% retracement of past few weeks decline from all time high
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June 2016 lows is near 2534.86 and the index low on Friday 2532.69
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
Above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA but above 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke above a resistance level of 2733.00 and now back to it; back to EMA50 after a short breach above it
A horizontal channel is forming; at the upper limit after a short breach above it
RSI-9 in a downtrend since 2:00 AM on February 16 after twice going above 70;
Below 20-bar EMA and at/above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke below the lower limit of a descending triangle; potential target near 2690.00; price bouncing up to the broken lower limit
RSI is in downtrend since 5:00 AM on February 15 with a sequence of lower high
Below 20-bar EMA which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down ward since 6:45 PM on February 18
The band contracted for sometime during Asian session; and is again expanding since 4:00 AM
RSI mostly below 65 since 12:30 PM on February 16; rising since 5:00 AM from below 20 and is just above 40
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a divergence at 4:15 below 20 %K reached 97.61 at 7:00 AM
Bias: Side-Down
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday February 16, the day before the three-day Presidents’ Day weekend. NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed down. The market made high at mid-day and then mostly drifted down. Most indices made almost shooting star like pattern.
For the week, major U.S. indices realized large gains. Most indices either made a bullish engulfing or piercing candlesticks. For the week all S&P sectors were up.
